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Redskins vs. Ravens Gambling Preview/Prediction

NFL: PORTIS INJURY AFFECTS ODDS AND PROP

The health of Washington running back Clinton Portis will have a big effect on the outcome of the Redskins and Baltimore Ravens game as well as our Primetime Prop.

Wager on the “Player to Score 1st TD” prop for this game and if your selection fails to score the first touchdown of the game, but proceeds to score at least two touchdowns in the game, your wager will be refunded, up to $100.00.

The Primetime Prop also hit Thursday night when San Diego Chargers’ running back Darren Sproles scored two touchdowns in their win over Oakland after failing to score the first one.

Portis went into last week’s home game against the New York Giants with a sore knee, but he came out with a sore neck after only carrying the ball 12 times in a 23-7 loss.

Portis’ neck makes him a game-time decision on Sunday and it’s a big reason why the Skins are five-point dogs. Early numbers show that 82% of the early bettors favor Baltimore and it’s expected to be a low scoring affair with the Over/Under at just 35.5 points.

If Portis can’t go, expect to see a lot of backup LaDell Betts. However, Baltimore’s run defense is one of the best in the NFL and Washington will likely not have success in that area without their starter. Their best chance to win is taking more chances down the field with quarterback Jason Campbell, even though he has struggled lately.

Airing it out more with Campbell also means that wide receiver Santana Moss has the best chance coming through on the ‘First TD’ and Primetime Prop as he has five touchdowns on the season.

Baltimore is one of the NFL’s hottest teams, winning six out of seven games straight up and ATS. They sit one game behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North and are also in the Wild Card race. Winning this game will aid their playoff chances and possibly knock out their hated neighbors in D.C.

Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco has played unlike a rookie for most of the year, and he’s been throwing more touchdown passes of late, with nine in the last five games. Mark Clayton has been on the receiving end of three of those, and he’s the most likely Flacco’ target to score on Sunday night.

And, even though Flacco has played well, this is a team that wants to run the ball first with Le’Ron McClain and Ray Rice. The Ravens are third in the league in rush offense and that will certainly be the game plan with the temperature dipping into the 20’s.

One positive note for Washington backers is while they’ve lost their last three home games (all to very good opponents), they’ve won and covered four straight on the road.

Note that the current leading candidates for the Player to Score 1st TD Prop are as follows: Le’Ron McClain (5:1), Clinton Portis (6:1), Mark Clayton (8:1), Derrick Mason (8:1), Santana Moss (8:1), and Todd Heap (8:1).

 

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