NCAAF: GATORS FAVORED OVER #1 TIDE
The winner of the game between the Florida Gators and Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday afternoon will punch their ticket to the national championship game.
Strangely, oddsmakers give Florida a huge edge, installing the Gators as 10-point favorites over the unbeaten Tide. Players at Sportsbook.com agree, with 62% backing the chalk. CBS will have the broadcast at 4 pm ET.
The SEC championship game returns with this matchup. Florida and Alabama played in the first three SEC title games beginning in 1992.
The 2008 title game has kind of a Final Four feel about it, with the winner of these two tremendous teams moving on to the BCS championship. As opposed to the hoops counterpart, the loser is “relegated” to the Sugar Bowl, instead of the championship game.
Alabama whipped rival Auburn 36-0 last week, doing what they do best, running the ball and controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides. The Crimson Tide ran the ball 50 times for 4.6 yards per carry and effectively averaged 17 yards per completion.
Against the Gators, they must be able to keep the contest at their pace, not the frenetic Florida one. The Crimson Tide control the ball for over 32 minutes a game and are 6-0 ATS away from home after two or more victories.
On defense, Bama is third in the country, allowing 248.5 yards per game because of what they do up front. They also disguise coverage’s well, utilizing the zone blitz package that cuts down on the kind of big plays that occur when a blitzing team gets burned.
Alabama is 6-0 ATS away allowing nine points or less in their last game since Nick Saban became coach.
Florida has the look of national championship material, ‘Gator-izing’ opponents by 39.6 points per game since suffering their only defeat to Mississippi. Let’s not joke around; this is the best team in the country. There is no phase of the game they are not excelling in and they would be favored against every team they would face in the national title.
The Gators have shown a propensity to take down teams that hog the pigskin with a 13-3 ATS mark in road games versus ball control teams, who have the ball 32 or more minutes a game.
2007 Heisman winner Tim Tebow is a unique athlete in today’s world, everything he says he backs up. He took responsibility for the Ole Miss loss and the team has sky-rocketed. He’s led Florida to an 11-1 and 9-2 ATS record this year and 12-4 against the number after a win by 17 or more points over the last two seasons.
If Florida is to cover, they would also probably make a good Over bet. Conversely, if the Crimson Tide are to cover and pull the upset, this would in turn lead to an Under play.
Since 1992, these two schools have met five times in the postseason, compared to four in the regular season. Florida is 5-4 and 3-5-1 ATS and the lower rated team will be a rare favorite against the top team in the country.
2008 SEC Championship Prediction: Florida covers
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