PGA Betting Predictions
The third major of the year is upon us and if the first two were any indication of what we are in for – I, like many simply can’t wait. Muirfield will host the world’s best for the 16th time – wind and rain were certainly a factor the last time the Open was played here in 2002.
2013 British Open
Location: Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom
Course: Muirfield
Date: Jul 18-21, 2013
Total Purse: US $ 7,714,351
Winner’s Share: US $ 1,381,787 (18% of total purse)
Odds from Bovada
Defending Champion: Ernie Els ($1,381,787)
Early indications are that the weather will be cooperative for the players this week and that conditions will be as good as could be expected in Scotland.
If you are looking for a breakthrough winner this week – best to alter your thinking. Experience, patience and a knowledge of how to play a links style course like Muirfield is absolutely essential. The winner will likely be a known commodity and one that knows exactly what it takes to win on Britain’s biggest stage.
Let’s take a look at some of the names to watch and what should play out in the always-scintillating British Open.
The Favorites:
Tiger Woods 8/1
Woods says he is fine after tweaking his elbow at the US Open but it is his first tournament since. Tiger has four victories in 2013, including THE PLAYERS and leads the PGA TOUR in adjusted scoring and the all-around ranking. He should be in the hunt here for sure. Woods had an awful weather limiting final round here in 2002 after dominating the first three rounds but the weather and the overall course design figures to be in Woods’ wheelhouse. Hard to bet against the world’s best when he appears in such good form.
Justin Rose 16/1
He hasn’t seen much action since winning the US Open – a T 13 at the Travelers. In The Open he has one top 10 and four top 25s in 11 starts and he was also T22 the last time Muirfield hosted in 2002. He leads the PGA TOUR in total driving, ranks 15th in GIR and second in adjusted scoring and is in the prime of his career. Rose has shown that he can play under pressure – and there will be pressure in his home country’s Open.
Phil Mickelson 18/1
Phil has come around – from a player you didn’t know what to make of to one that has two wins (including last week in the Scottish Open) and six top-three finish in his last 13 starts. Impressive. He has four major wins and is another to watch in what appears to be a wide open field this week.
The Contenders:
Adam Scott 20/1
Will certainly be the most motivated player in the field after bogeying four of the last five hole last year and losing by one. He has picked his spots this year and has played well in the Majors (8 top 25s in his last 10 Majors) – including his Masters win. He is another one of those guys in the prime of his career, that has played in pressure situations and is a guy that karma may pay back this week.
Graeme McDowell 22/1
Is feast or famine right now – 3 wins and 5 missed cuts in his last 8 starts. He finished a career best T5 last year but had a brutal time in the last Major – the US Open. I love McDowell but I have a hard time with his inconsistencies.
Lee Westwood 25/1
Is there any player more due than Westy? He has 4 top 10s, 5 top 25s in 18 starts in the British Open and he continues to show up and sniff around the leaderboard in Majors. He was T8 at the Masters this year and was T15 at the US Open. Is it me or does it seem that it just isn’t meant to be for Lee?
Rory McIlroy 25/1
Has been a huge disappointment this year – the change in equipment has taken a while to adjust to. But he does have four top 10s on the PGA TOUR this year. He has made every cut here and based on talent alone McIlroy has to be in the conversation.
Sergio Garcia 28/1
Has been solid at The Open over the years – seven top 10s and an eighth top 25s. He has been knocking on the door but just can’t seem to break through in a Major – he finished T8 the last time The Open was held at Muirfield. He has eighteen top 20s in his last 21 starts worldwide – quietly solid this year.
Ernie Els 28/1
The defending champion here and also won The Open the last time it was held at Muirfield back in 2002. He enters this week off a T6 at the BMW PGA Championship, a T4 in the US Open and a win in the BMW International Open. As I mentioned before – there are a ton of guys with a legitimate shot at this year’s Open and Els has to be in that conversation. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Luke Donald 28/1
Donald has been good – not quite as busy as in years past. He has two T5s and a T11 in his last four starts in The Open Championship and his putting and ability to dial in those irons could put him in contention this week.
Henrik Stenson 33/1
Played well last week but ended up T3 in the Scottish Open to continue his upward trend. He was T21 U.S. Open, T10 BMW and T3 at Scottish Open this year and his history at The Open is also very good – two T3s in his last four starts. His consistency is admirable, his ball striking is ever-improving and his ability to show up in Majors is definitely eye-opening.
Jason Day 33/1
Day has been money in the Majors this year and maybe deserved a better fate than a runner-up finish at the US Open. He is 21st in strokes gained-putting and 13th in adjusted scoring on TOUR and could contend again this week.
Matt Kuchar 40/1
Has made the cut just twice in eight appearances in this event although he did finish T9 last year in The Open but missed the cut the last time The Open was played at Muirfield. Can I see a top 10 based on his form? Yes. Could I see a win? It’s definitely possible based on his demeanor.
Brandt Snedeker 40/1
Finished T3 in this event last year and has looked very good in the Big Tournaments this year so far – a T6 at the Masters, T8 at THE PLAYERS Championship and T17 at the U.S. Open. While some of the bigger names are stealing the spotlight, Sneds has the game to contend this week despite being a tad inconsistent since returning from injury.
The Sleepers (50/1 or higher):
Nicolas Colsaerts 50/1
Has been a name sneaking onto many people’s radar with six top 10s already this year. He finished T7 in this tournament last year and had a T10 at the U.S. Open and a T9 at the Scottish Open this year. He is #1 on TOUR in distance off the tee and 24th in GIR – qualities that will serve him well at Muirfield.
Zach Johnson 80/1
Is coming off a playoff loss in the John Deere and has made the cut in all six appearances at The Open with three top 20s and a T9 last year. Control is the name of the game and Johnson certainly has plenty of that.
Bill Haas 100/1
Haas at 100/1? His history here isn’t great – that’s why. Just one top 25 in his career at The Open but he has been very good on TOUR this year – eight top 10s already with a win at Congressional. He is seventh in greens hit, T2 in par-4 scoring and 21st in adjusted scoring on TOUR and is the best value on the board for sure!
The Pick:
The pick this week isn’t from left field AT ALL! It’s Tiger Woods at a surprisingly decent price of 8/1. He’s fresh, he’s healthy and he’s more-than-overdue for his 15th Major win! He’ll keep his driver in the bag and run away with this one.
I also like the price that you can get Matt Kuchar at – 40/1 for a player that plays an incredible control game is mighty enticing.
The sleeper this week is also very good value – Bill Haas at 100/1. He hasn’t been great at The Open but conditions are supposed to be calm this week which closes the gap between those who succeed and those who struggle in this tournament.
2013 BRITISH OPEN Odds
STEVE STRICKER 6/1
ZACH JOHNSON 12/1
KEEGAN BRADLEY 20/1
LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN 20/1
RYAN MOORE 25/1
NICK WATNEY 30/1
JORDAN SPIETH 30/1
CHARLEY HOFFMAN 30/1
BRENDON DE JONGE 30/1
JOHN SENDEN 30/1
SCOTT STALLINGS 40/1
HARRIS ENGLISH 40/1
LUKE GUTHRIE 50/1
CHARLES HOWELL III 50/1
GARY WOODLAND 50/1
CAMILO VILLEGAS 50/1
MATT JONES 50/1
BOO WEEKLEY 50/1
MORGAN HOFFMANN 50/1
JOHN ROLLINS 50/1
PAT PEREZ 50/1
KEVIN STREELMAN 50/1
KYLE STANLEY 50/1
JOHN HUH 60/1
K.J. CHOI 60/1
CARL PETTERSSON 60/1
BRYCE MOLDER 60/1
BRIAN DAVIS 60/1
CHRIS KIRK 60/1
ROBERTO CASTRO 60/1
D.H. LEE 60/1
JEFF OVERTON 60/1
BEN CRANE 80/1
RORY SABBATINI 80/1
DAVID HEARN 80/1
ANDRES ROMERO 80/1
DAVIS LOVE III 80/1
BRENDON TODD 80/1
CHARLIE WI 80/1
TED POTTER, JR 80/1
ROBERT KARLSSON 100/1
KEN DUKE 100/1
CHEZ REAVIE 100/1
D.A. POINTS 100/1
BRENDAN STEELE 100/1
JERRY KELLY 100/1
BUD CAULEY 125/1
SEUNG-YUL NOH 125/1
RYO ISHIKAWA 200/1
FIELD (all others) 9/4
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