PGA Betting – WGC-Cadillac Championship Preview & Picks
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LAST WEEK: Nothing to really be ashamed of. Matt Kuchar was the pick and he was a respectable 17th. We just can’t seem to hit on the big one. Remember, handicapping golf tournaments is still usually a needle-in-a-haystack exercise. But the good thing is that one correct pick can often salvage your entire PGA betting season.
This week’s WGC-Cadillac Championship will dust off a few big names we haven’t seen for a while, including Tiger Woods and Steve Stricker. The host, TPC Blue Monster at Doral, is pretty easy in terms of greens and putting but tough off the tee. So let’s pick some guys who put the ball in the fairway and aren’t afraid to attack the pin.
THIS WEEK’S PGA BETTING
Date: March 10 – 13
Event: World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship
Course: TPC Blue Monster at Doral, Miami, Florida
Purse: $8,500,000
Defending Champ: Ernie Els
Winning Share: $1,400,000
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 550
THE ELITE
Martin Kaymer
WGC-Cadillac Championship odds: +915
The World’s No. 1 golfer doesn’t look like a flash in the pan to me. He’s young and he has a strong all-around game, ranking 12th on the European Tour in scoring average, 21st in greens and 28th in putting. Kaymer finished third at the Cadillac last year. Obviously a fine pick.
Tiger Woods
WGC-Cadillac Championship odds: +1015
To clarify, I don’t consider Tiger an “elite” pick. The oddsmakers do. They know they can get plenty of bettors to waste their cash on his name – and at poor value. Even the good Tiger a couple of years ago had his struggles off the tee, so this tourney is a bad fit for him.
Graeme McDowell
WGC-Cadillac Championship odds: +1015
After finishing sixth at last week’s Honda Classic, McDowell’s stats puffed up to the point that he may be the Tour’s highest-rated guy at the moment. He’s first in adjusted scoring average, ball striking, sand saves and the all-around ranking. Since he’s swinging so beautifully, he won’t be afraid to go right after the stick. A major contender.
THE CONTENDERS
Paul Casey
WGC-Cadillac Championship odds: +1850
If Casey can keep the ball in the fairway, he’ll have a great shot this week, as we know he can bomb it. He also has a solid recent history at Doral, cracking the top 10 twice since 2007 and finishing sixth last year. Decent mid-range play but I wouldn’t mind seeing better value than +1850.
Matt Kuchar
WGC-Cadillac Championship odds: +2050
I think Kuchar is my new Zach Johnson – the guy I’m tempted to recommend every week. He’s striking the ball really well and he led the field in the all-important fairways statistic last year en route to a third-place finish. If you like McDowell, you have to look at Kuchar for the same reason. 
SOLID PICKS
Bill Haas
WGC-Cadillac Championship odds: +3050
Tucked in amidst all the superstar names, Haas is a sneaky play. Has finished 12th or better in four of his five stroke-play starts this season. Haas is third on Tour in greens in regulation and sixth in birdie average; in other words, he gets on the dance floor often and makes something happen when he’s there. That’s the perfect makeup for this tourney. Haas finished sixth at the Cadillac last year, ranking second in – you guessed it – GIR and birdies.
Steve Stricker
WGC-Cadillac Championship odds: +4050
When was the last time Stricker gave us a 40 to 1 return? It’s been a while but his odds this week give him borderline “sleeper” status. Maybe it’s because Stricker hasn’t played much this season? He does, however, have a top-nine finish in two of his three stroke-play starts. Hasn’t sizzled at Doral but has three straight top-16 finishes here. You could do a lot worse than Stricker.
THE SLEEPER
Anthony Kim
WGC-Cadillac Championship odds: +8050
Kim is a stab in the dark, I admit. His 80 to 1 odds are the worst in the field. But that’s why I kind of like him in this situation. Yes he looks terrible of late. His last three stroke-play starts: missed cut, withdrew, missed cut. However, despite his brutal results, he’s still 23rd in birdie average and 33rd in par breakers. The kid still goes for it. So if you’re feeling really, really lucky, you could try to catch lightning in a bottle with him.
THE PICK
Don’t read too much into my Kim discussion: he’s still just a Hail Mary for you risk takers. In reality, I like McDowell and Haas the most. I think McDowell’s next big breakthrough will come when he wins another major later this year. This week, I love Haas. Better value than McDowell but playing almost as well and has the perfect style of game to win at Doral.
WGC-Cadillac Championship pick: Bill Haas +3050
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2011 WGC-Cadillac Championship Updated Betting Odds
Jason Day 60-1
Aaron Baddeley 80-1
Anthony Kim 60-1
Ben Crane 60-1
Alvaro Quiros 30-1
Ernie Els 50-1
Charl Schwartzel 30-1
Edoardo Molinari 100-1
Francesco Molinari 60-1
Dustin Johnson 30-1
Adam Scott 100-1
Geoff Ogilvy 30-1
Graeme McDowell 15-1
KJ Choi 60-1
Jeff Overton 60-1
Bubba Watson 40-1
Louis Oosthuizen 100-1
Martin Laird 80-1
Camilo Villegas 100-1
Luke Donald 25-1
Bill Haas 40-1
Martin Kaymer 10-1
Hunter Mahan 30-1
Lee Westwood 20-1
Justin Rose 50-1
Jhonattan Vegas 100-1
Jim Furyk 40-1
Tiger Woods 12-1
Tim Clark 80-1
Vijay Singh 40-1
Young-Eun Yang 50-1
Zach Johnson 80-1
zx Field (Any Other Golfers) 6-1
Padraig Harrington 50-1
Ian Poulter 50-1
Paul Casey 25-1
Phil Mickelson 15-1
Retief Goosen 50-1
Rickie Fowler 50-1
Robert Allenby 60-1
Robert Karlsson 60-1
Rory McIlroy 25-1
Rory Sabbatini 60-1
Ross Fisher 100-1
Ryan Moore 50-1
Steve Stricker 30-1
Thomas Aiken 80-1
Miguel Angel Jimenez 100-1
Matt Kuchar 25-1
Nick Watney 20-1
