Bet On PGA Golf – Tour Championship Predictions
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LAST WEEK: Matt Kuchar was somewhat in the hunt at the BMW Championship before a 78 on Saturday derailed his tournament. So much for that pick. But we get one last shot at glory with the PGA’s final playoff event arriving this week.
The field narrows to a prestigious 30 golfers at the Tour Championship by Coca-Cola this week. The host course, East Lake, may play easier than normal this year, as a dry summer has taken a lot of hold out of the rough. The golfers who can hit greens consistently and make birdies are the guys to target this week.
Date: Sep. 22 – 25
Event: TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola
Course: East Lake GC, Atlanta, Georgia
Purse: $8,000,000
Defending Champ: Jim Furyk
Winning Share: $1,350,000
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 2500
THE ELITE
Luke Donald
Tour Championship odds: +600
It isn’t always fun to pick the golfer who gives you the smallest return but Donald makes a compelling case. He’s second on Tour in putting, fresh off a fourth-place finish at the BMW and finished second at East Lake last season. Donald has played as well as any golfer this season, so a win would cap his year perfectly.
THE CONTENDERS
Webb Simpson
Tour Championship odds: +1200
Currently the FedEx Cup points leader, Webb Simpson would probably lock up Player of the Year honors as well if he won this week. He’s riding four straight top-10s finishes and is 10th on Tour in greens in regulation. He’s a first-timer at East Lake, however.
Adam Scott
Tour Championship odds: +1500
Scott is trending well for East Lake, having ranked seventh or better in both fairways and greens hit last week. He won the Tour Championship in 2008 but hasn’t posted a top-25 since, so he’s somewhat of a wild card.
Nick Watney
Tour Championship odds: +1500
Watney is a respectable 34th on Tour in GIR – but it’s his performance last season at East Lake that really makes him intriguing. He finished fourth last season, tying for the lead among the field in greens hit. During one 18-hole stretch, he was 12-under par. He clearly knows how to score low at this course.
Jason Day
Tour Championship odds: +1500
Some bettors may like that Day scores better than any golfer on Tour on par-3s this season. But he’s inaccurate off the tee. Considering the abundance of great picks available this week, we don’t have to take a chance on a guy who doesn’t always put the ball in the fairway.
SOLID PICK
Justin Rose
Tour Championship odds: +2000
If you like riding the hot hand, Rose is clearly your guy this week. He won the BMW Championship last week convincingly, ranking fifth or better in fairways, GIR and putting. If he keeps that up at East Lake, he’ll be tough to beat.
THE SLEEPERS
Chez Reavie
Tour Championship odds: +3000
Reavie has quietly played consistently well of late, posting three top-10s in his last four starts and seven top-20s in his last nine outings. He’s an accurate ball striker, 17th in fairways and 16th in greens hit. Hasn’t played East Lake before but he rides a solid eighth-place finish at the BMW into this week.
John Senden
Tour Championship odds: +3000
Last week’s runner up also was second in GIR. It wasn’t a fluke effort, as he leads the Tour in GIR this season. In his lone other trip to East Lake, Senden finished 10th. He’s an educated sleeper choice.
THE PICK
When you’re choosing between the 30 golfers who’ve played the best this season, the betting pick won’t be easy. Every guy I’ve listed above feels like he has what it takes to win.
Because it’s so hard to choose between golfers, this is a smart time to make a home-run pick. Senden at +3000 is a “sleeper” but he isn’t that risky because he only has to beat 29 golfers to win. Given the course setup, the Tour’s leader in GIR seems like as strong a choice as anyone.
If you want the bigger name picks, Donald and Watney both look to me like they’ll contend this week. Watney in particular seems to have East Lake figured out. But Senden is my pick. In no other tournament all season does a supposed high-risk sleeper pick carry such little actual risk.
Here’s hoping we end 2011 with a winner. Good luck!
2011 Tour Championship pick: John Senden +3000
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