PGA Betting – Greenbrier Classic Preview & Pick
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LAST WEEK: Charl Schwartzel didn’t embarrass us with his ninth-place finish at the Canadian Open. Too bad he faltered with that 73 on Saturday. He would’ve been right there.
Date: July 28 – 31
Event: The Greenbrier Classic
Course: The Old White TPC, White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia
Purse: $6,000,000
Defending Champ: Stuart Appleby
Winning Share: $1,080,000
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 500
We travel to the Greenbrier Classic this week. Last year, the Greenbrier played humiliatingly easy. Stuart Appleby shot a 59 and the field in general decimated it. 
So the host course, TPC Old White, has been restored in an attempt to make it tougher.
I’ll believe it when I see it. I still want some low scorers and birdie makers this week.
THE ELITE
Phil Mickelson
Greenbrier Classic odds: +1000
Lefty is quietly having a pretty solid year, cracking the top 10 five times in 14 starts. While he can be a rollercoaster, he has the ability to go low that’s necessary to win the Greenbrier. Mickelson is 11th on Tour in adjusted scoring average.
Sergio Garcia
Greenbrier Classic odds: +1500
Based on pretty much all the numbers, it’s tough to argue with picking Sergio. He enters the tourney with three straight top-10s, two of which were in majors. He’s fourth on Tour in adjusted scoring average and 30th in ball-striking. The only knock on Sergio is that he hasn’t broken through to win a tournament, PGA or European, since 2008.
THE CONTENDERS
Charles Howell III
Greenbrier Classic odds: +2000
Before a mediocre finish at the British open – forgivable given the unique conditions there – Howell was sizzling. He had three straight top-fives and only 17 holes over par in 12 rounds of golf over that span. Clearly, he can go low. He has to be considered this week.
Webb Simpson
Greenbrier Classic odds: +2000
Luke Donald? Nick Watney? Nope – Webb Simpson leads the Tour in all-around statistical ranking. He’s played consistently well this season and ranks sixth in adjusted scoring average. Feels like he’s due to win one.
Jeff Overton
Greenbrier Classic odds: +2500
Jeff Overton has been quiet this season but did finish third at the AT&T National four weeks ago. He also narrowly missed out on the victory at last year’s Greenbrier. Maybe he’ll finish the job at a tourney that clearly suits his game?
SOLID PICKS
Brandt Snedeker
Greenbrier Classic odds: +3000
The one stat category in which the Greenbrier actually ranked as difficult last year: putting. Could that be music to Brandt Snedeker’s ears? He’s the No. 2 putter on Tour and, theoretically, could have a leg up on the field if he’s on his game this week.
Anthony Kim
Greenbrier Classic odds: +4000
2011 hasn’t been kind to Anthony Kim. He has just two top-10s compared to eight missed cuts and three more DNFs, including a disqualification last week after incorrectly filling out his scorecard. Statistically, he hasn’t shown an ability to go low. But he certainly did in the past. I’m still waiting for him to bounce back one of these weeks with a dominant effort.
THE SLEEPER
DJ Trahan
Greenbrier Classic odds: +5000
Don’t forget about DJ Trahan. He’s shown a knack for low numbers in the past; he’s heating up, with three top-25s in his last five starts; he’s long off the tee; and he’s 26th in Tour in greens hit. He qualifies as an educated sleeper in my mind.
THE PICK
This week doesn’t feel like an easy choice. Based on skill, Mickelson seems to have a major leg up on the field. Based on the numbers, it appears Sergio and Howell have the best chance to win. However, to me, the time to take a chance on a sleeper is when the favorites don’t seem like sure things. Phil hasn’t played much this year and Garcia and Howell, as sharp as they’ve looked of late, can’t seem to make that extra push needed to win. So I’ll go with Trahan. He’s dipped into the 60s in 13 of his last 20 rounds. Maybe he’ll do it four times in a row and wind up a winner this week.
With a sleeper pick like Trahan and odds of +5000, hitting on the bet would be enough to salvage an entire season. I think it’s actually wise to swing for the fences once in a while when the time is right. That time is right now.
2011 Greenbrier Classic pick: DJ Trahan +5000
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2011 Greenbrier Classic Championship – Odds to Win – Updated Betting Odds
Phil Mickelson 8/1
Sergio Garcia 14/1
Charles Howell III 18/1
Webb Simpson 20/1
Retief Goosen 22/1
Bill Haas 28/1
Jeff Overton 20/1
Brandt Snedeker 25/1
Spencer Levin 28/1
Brian Gay 33/1
J.B. Holmes 33/1
Anthony Kim 33/1
Chris Kirk 33/1
Davis Love III 33/1
Gary Woodland 33/1
Brendon De Jonge 40/1
Ryan Palmer 40/1
Andres Romero 33/1
John Senden 40/1
D.J. Trahan 50/1
Woody Austin 50/1
Keegan Bradley 66/1
Jonathan Byrd 66/1
Hunter Haas 66/1
J.J. Henry 66/1
Brandt Jobe 66/1
Scott Piercy 66/1
D-A Points 66/1
John Rollins 66/1
Cameron Tringale 66/1
Tommy Gainey 66/1
Carl Pettersson 66/1
Chez Reavie 66/1
Kyle Stanley 66/1
Brian Davis 80/1
Troy Matteson 80/1
George Mcneill 80/1
Camilo Villegas 80/1
Brett Wetterich 80/1
Chris Couch 66/1
Ricky Barnes 80/1
Greg Chalmers 80/1
Heath Slocum 80/1
Tom Gillis 100/1
Ryuji Imada 100/1
Marc Leishman 100/1
Justin Leonard 100/1
John Merrick 100/1
Chris Stroud 100/1
Scott Verplank 100/1
Blake Adams 125/1
Stuart Appleby 100/1
Kevin Chappell 100/1
Ben Curtis 125/1
Trevor Immelman 125/1
Jerry Kelly 125/1
David Mathis 125/1
Scott Stallings 125/1
Vaughn Taylor 125/1
Josh Teater 125/1
Michael – H Thompson 100/1
Johnson Wagner 125/1
Jimmy Walker 125/1
Erik Compton 125/1
Chris Dimarco 100/1
Tim Herron 125/1
Scott McCarron 125/1
Michael Connell 150/1
Joe Durant 150/1
Kent Jones 150/1
Sunghoon Kang 150/1
John Mallinger 150/1
Nick O’Hern 125/1
Cameron Percy 125/1
Tom Pernice Jr. 150/1
Tim Petrovic 150/1
Aron Price 125/1
Chris Riley 150/1
Paul Stankowski 150/1
Dean Wilson 125/1
Adam Hadwin 125/1
Shane Bertsch 150/1
David Hearn 150/1
Lee Janzen 150/1
Billy Mayfair 150/1
William Mcgirt 150/1
Troy Merritt 175/1
Joe Ogilvie 150/1
Kenny Perry 150/1
Tom Watson 150/1
John Daly 150/1
Steven Bowditch 175/1
James Driscoll 175/1
Bi-O Kim 200/1
Ben Martin 200/1
Matt Mcquillan 175/1
Michael Sim 200/1
Matt Bettencourt 175/1
Michael Bradley 200/1
Steve Elkington 200/1
Steve Flesch 200/1
Richard S Johnson 200/1
Matt Jones 200/1
Rocco Mediate 200/1
Jim Renner 250/1
Tag Ridings 250/1
Drew Weaver 250/1
