Bet On Golf – John Deere Classic Predictions + Free PGA Pick
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LAST WEEK: We flirted with success for the second week in a row. Our pick, Webb Simpson, got himself into a contention with a 64 on Saturday at the AT&T National but couldn’t keep the momentum going on Sunday, finishing eighth. That day belonged to winner Nick Watney, who has been on our radar pretty much every week.
July 07 – 10 2011
Event: John Deere Classic
Course: TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois
Purse: $4,500,000
Defending Champ: Steve Stricker
Winning Share: $792,000
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 500
Yee haw! If you like run-n’-gun, wild scores, the John Deere Classic is for you. Steve Stricker’s victory last year, his second straight at this event, included a 60 and a 62. Paul Goydos shot a 69. 
The host course, TPC Deere Run, never played easier than it did last year, ranking second among all the non-major par-71s.
THE ELITE
Steve Stricker
John Deere Classic odds: +700
Can lightning strike a third straight time? It’s entirely possible. Stricker is simply made for the John Deere Classic. He leads the Tour in birdie average and we all know how well he putts. Not contending would be more of a fluke than contending for him this week.
Jason Day
John Deere Classic odds: +1000
Day is absolutely on the cusp of something big, having finished in the top 10 five times in his last six tournaments. Since he’s 13th on Tour in birdie average and was 15th place the last two years at the John Deere, this might be his week.
THE CONTENDERS
Zach Johnson
John Deere Classic odds: +1500
Zach Johnson doesn’t have the rich history Stricker has here but he finished second at the 2009 John Deere. His accurate approach game suits TPC Deere run very nicely. You can never count Johnson out on a tight track that rewards precision.
Charles Howell III
John Deere Classic odds: +2000
Charles Howell isn’t tearing up courses with birdies this season overall but he’s among the Tour’s hottest golfers over the last couple of weeks. He cracked the top three in his last two outings at the St. Jude Classic and AT&T National. He’s a reasonably accurate ball striker with four top-25 finishes at the John Deere since 2000.
David Toms
John Deere Classic odds: +2000
Toms has re-established himself this season as someone we have to pay attention to week in, week out. He won this tourney in 1997 (albeit at Oakwood Country Club) and is second on Tour in greens in regulation. In his last start at the Travelers, Toms led the field in fairways and greens. He could tear up TPC Deere Run.
SOLID PICKS
Johnathan Byrd
John Deere Classic odds: +2500
Byrd is a solid mid-range pick. The +2500 odds represent decent value for a guy who won this tournament in 2007 and is a top-25 guy on Tour in both GIR and birdie average. You could do much worse than Byrd this week.
John Rollins
John Deere Classic odds: +3000
Too bad Rollins isn’t a bit more under the radar this week, as he could’ve made for a nice sleeper. His putter has been hot and he has two top-10s in his last three starts. If he continues to putt well, he could sneak up on the field.
THE SLEEPER
Bryce Molder
John Deere Classic odds: +4000
A hot golfer could be very useful at a tournament like the John Deere, where you need to sizzle and go really low to win. Molder has two straight top-10s and eight straight rounds of par or better. He could be worth a flier.
THE PICK
Tournaments like the John Deere can be tricky to handicap as it feels like every golfer in the field will post sparkling scores and give himself a chance to win. The best we can do is focus on the guys whose performance looks reasonably predictable. Stricker is tempting but his ROI is small and the odds of winning an event three straight times are slim, aren’t they?
I prefer David Toms. He’s proven himself with some outstanding performances already this season and his accurate game could lead to some low-60s scores this week. He had two straight 62s when he won the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial in May; his last time out at the Travelers, he posted all four rounds in the 60s. Toms can go low.
John Deere Classic pick: David Toms +2000
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2011 John Deere Classic Tournament – Odds to Win – Updated Betting Odds
Stricker, Steve 7-1
Day, Jason 10-1
Johnson, Zach 15-1
Howell III, Charles 20-1
Toms, David 20-1
Byrd, Jonathan 25-1
Cink, Stewart 30-1
Rollins, John 30-1
Marino, Stephen 30-1
Molder, Bryce 40-1
Gay, Brian 40-1
Merrick, John 40-1
Oosthuizen, Louis 40-1
Slocum, Heath 40-1
Henry, J.J. 50-1
Perez, Pat 50-1
Wi, Charlie 50-1
Romero, Andres 50-1
Jobe, Brandt 50-1
Stroud, Chris 50-1
Imada, Ryuji 50-1
Barnes, Ricky 50-1
Garrigus, Robert 60-1
Wilson, Mark 60-1
Taylor , Vaughn 60-1
Kirk, Chris 60-1
Davis, Brian 60-1
Campbell, Chad 60-1
Matteson, Troy 60-1
Dufner, Jason 60-1
Verplank, Scott 60-1
Trahan, D.J. 60-1
Love III, Davis 60-1
Goydos, Paul 80-1
Vegas, Jhonnathan 80-1
Kelly, Jerry 80-1
Points, D.A. 80-1
Stadler, Kevin 80-1
Jones, Matthew 80-1
Gainey, Tommy 100-1
Couch, Chris 100-1
DiMarco, Chris 100-1
de Jonge, Brendon 100-1
Perry, Kenny 100-1
Pampling, Rod 100-1
Chalmers, Greg 100-1
Leishman, Marc 100-1
Duval, David 200-1
Daly, John 250-1
Against the Field (Any Other Golfer) 3-1
One reply on “PGA Betting – John Deere Classic Preview & Pick”
Hard to go against Stricker this week isn’t it?