PGA Betting – HP Byron Nelson Championship Preview & Pick
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LAST WEEK: Turns out that lightning could strike twice for David Toms after all. He wound up in the top-two for the second straight week but came out on top this time at Colonial. Our Matt Kuchar pick didn’t totally crash and burn (T-16) but it looks like we have to consider Toms a guy to watch going forward.
THIS WEEK’S PGA BETTING
Date: May 26-29, 2011
Event: HP Byron Nelson Championship
Course: TPC Four Seasons Resort Las Colinas, Irving, Texas
Purse: $6,500,000
Defending Champ: Jason Day
Winning Share: $1,170,000
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 500
Toms won’t play this week but the host course, TPC Four Seasons, should reward a similar player. Its fairways were the second-toughest to hit on Tour last season, so we should be on the lookout for accurate ball strikers again.
THE CONTENDERS
Nick Watney
Byron Nelson Championship odds: +1215
Watney has been on the shortlist for 2011’s best players, leading the Tour in all-around ranking, and he also has back-to-back top-10 finishes at the Byron Nelson Championship. You don’t get a great return by picking him but you do get a hot player with a good recent history at the host course.
K.J. Choi
Byron Nelson Championship odds: +1415
Choi is as hot as he’s ever been, riding a win at THE PLAYERS and equalling a career high with four consecutive top-10s. But can his hot streak cancel the fact that he’s never even cracked the top 25 at TPC Four Seasons? There are more stable picks out there.
Jason Day
Byron Nelson Championship odds: +1415
The defending Byron Nelson champion dominated last year with his putter. Though last week marked his first finish outside the top-10 in four tourneys, he closed on a high note with a 68. He’s confident at TPC Four Seasons and fourth on Tour in the all-around ranking. Respectable pick.
Dustin Johnson
Byron Nelson Championship odds: +1615
Dustin Johnson doesn’t always get enough credit for ball striking because he’s such a long hitter. He’s quietly 17th on Tour in greens in regulation. He also cracked the top-10 last year and the year before at the Byron Nelson. This could be his big comeback week.
SOLID PICKS
Rory Sabbatini
Byron Nelson Championship odds: +2050
Sabbatini isn’t the most consistent player out there but he has the aggregate score course record at TPC Four Seasons and he’s quietly fourth on Tour in scoring average. He turns it up once in a while and he’s done it here before, so he’s worth a good look.
Matt Kuchar
Byron Nelson Championship odds: +2050
Hitting the fairway is vital at the Byron Nelson; Kuchar is 20th in that stat. He’s also 12th in GIR. I keep waiting for him to take charge and get his first win of 2011 but it hasn’t happened.
Brian Gay
Byron Nelson Championship odds: +2550
Love Brian Gay’s peripheral indicators this week. He’s No. 1 on Tour in fairways and scrambling. He’s also fifth in scoring average. He’s been consistent, too, making nine consecutive cuts. He finished second at the Byron Nelson last year, so he has unfinished business.
THE SLEEPER
Brian Davis
Byron Nelson Championship odds: +4550
Davis could sneak up on the field this week. He’s only made the cut twice in five tries at TPC Four Seasons but cracked the top 10 each of those times. He’s 10th on Tour in fairways and was second to Sabbatini two years ago. Davis is definitely what I’d call an educated sleeper.
THE PICK
Instead of a handful of golfers seemingly “fighting” for my pick, Brian Gay is screaming at me. Given his ball striking, consistency and good recent history at the host course, he’s the perfect pick in my eyes.
Byron Nelson Championship pick: Brian Gay +2550
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2011 HP Byron Nelson Championship Tournament – Odds to Win – Updated Betting Odds
Jordan Spieth 200-1
Justin Leonard 100-1
KJ Choi 15-1
Marc Leishman 50-1
Matt Kuchar 20-1
Mike Weir 500-1
Nick Watney 10-1
Richard Johnson 200-1
Ricky Barnes 80-1
Robert Allenby 40-1
Robert Garrigus 80-1
Rory Sabbatini 25-1
Ryan Palmer 80-1
Scott Verplank 40-1
Sean OHair 30-1
Sergio Garcia 30-1
Stephen Ames 125-1
Steven Bowditch 125-1
Tommy Gainey 80-1
Vijay Singh 60-1
zx Field (Any Other Golfers) 2-1
Bryce Molder 100-1
Carl Pettersson 60-1
Chad Campbell 80-1
Charles Howell III 50-1
Charley Hoffman 40-1
Charlie Wi 40-1
Chris Kirk 80-1
Chris Riley 150-1
DA Points 50-1
DJ Trahan 60-1
Dustin Johnson 15-1
Fredrik Jacobson 60-1
Gary Woodland 50-1
Greg Chalmers 80-1
Heath Slocum 100-1
JJ Henry 80-1
Jason Day 15-1
Jason Dufner 50-1
Jeff Overton 40-1
Jerry Kelly 100-1
John Senden 40-1
Andres Romero 100-1
Angel Cabrera 60-1
Anthony Kim 50-1
Arjun Atwal 100-1
Ben Crane 40-1
Brandt Snedeker 30-1
Brian Davis 60-1
Brian Gay 30-1
