NFL Week 17 Betting Lines – New Orleans vs. Carolina
Who would have thought that at this point the New Orleans Saints would be the team that would be faltering, while the Carolina Panthers were coming on strong? Yet if you have looked at the respective performances of these teams the last couple of weeks that might be the conclusion you’d draw.
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New Orleans Saints (13-2 SU, 8-7 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (7-8 SU, 8-7 ATS)
Sunday, January 3 – 1 PM ET
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
NO has covered one of its last five games
NO has won 13 of its last 15 games SU
NO has played five of its last six games
NO has won its last seven road games SU
CAR has covered four of its last five games
CAR has played five of its last six games UNDER the total
CAR has won 12 of its last 16 home games SU
CAR has played five of its last six home games UNDER the total
The Saints were run over by the Dallas Cowboys on their own field a couple of weeks ago, and did not wake up until it was too late. Then, they went to sleep in the second half last Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, blowing a 17-0 lead and losing 20-17 in overtime. Now comes the speculation about whether the Saints possibly peaked at the wrong time.
Carolina couldn’t have had a worse start, while Jake Delhomme was throwing all those interceptions. By the time he was finished he had thrown 18 of them, then went out with a finger injury, leaving things to backup Matt Moore, who hadn’t played since 2007. 
Well, Carolina has suddenly gotten competitive, covering four games in a row in the NFL betting lines and averaging 163.5 yards rushing over the last four. In their last two games the Panthers have outscored the Vikings and Giants by a total score of 67-16. Jonathan Stewart ran for 206 yards last week against the Giants, leading Carolina to a 41-9 embarrassment of the Giants in the Meadowlands.
Here are some of the head-to-head NFL football betting trends that relate to this matchup:
CAR has covered five of the last six meetings
CAR has won six of the last eight meetings SU
Four of the last five meetings have gone UNDER the total
NO has covered six of the last seven meetings as the road team
NO has won six of the last nine meetings SU as the road team
The last five meetings in Charlotte have gone UNDER the total
Minnesota lost in overtime to the Bears on Monday night, which means that the Saints have clinched the #1 seed throughout the NFC side of the playoff draw.
So coach Sean Payton has some decisions to make regarding personnel in this game. How many of his defensive starters is he going to rest? What about Reggie Bush, who is always susceptible to injury? Does he start Drew Brees and play him for just a series or two? Does it matter to get a win under his team’s belt after two pretty disappointing defeats? Keep in mind that New Orleans, which is 8-7 ATS in the NFL betting lines, will get a first-round playoff bye, so they will not play for two weeks.
It has been suggested that had New Orleans won that game last week, they may have taken it easy this week and taken a false sense of confidence into the playoff opener. I don’t know that they are going to capture an authentic “sense of urgency” in this game. Carolina looks like the team fighting hard to get to the .500 mark. They already seem to have saved John Fox’ job, at least for one more season.
If a team is napping, the Panthers, with their running game (which could get DeAngelo Williams back this week) will make you pay. Both Williams and Stewart have topped 1000 yards for the season. Matt Moore has now thrown seven TD passes in the last three weeks without an interception, and has completed 61% in that time. He has started seven games in the NFL, and Carolina has covered every one of them.
I’m not altogether positive that the Saints can get the spark back, even if they tried. We are sticking with the Carolina Panthers in the NFL betting lines.
OUR PREDICTION: CAROLINA BY 13
