Expert NFL Picks – Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys (9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS in 2008) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS in 2008)
Sunday, September 13 – 1 PM ET
NFL betting odds: DALLAS -6, Total 39
The BetUS expert NFL pick this week looks at the Dallas vs. Tampa Bay game. Right now, the Cowboys are listed as a six-point favorite, with a posted total of 39 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
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DALL has covered seven of its last 21 games
DALL has covered one of its last six road games
DALL has lost five of its last six road games SU
DALL has played four of its last six road games OVER the total
TB has lost four of its last five games SU
TB has covered one of its last five games
TB has played four of its last six games OVER the total 
TB has covered one of its last five home games
TB has won six of its last eight home games SU
TB has played four of its last six home games UNDER the total
Also…
DALL has covered five of the last seven meetings
DALL has won nine of the last 12 meetings SU
Six of the last seven meetings have gone UNDER the total
I can’t say that I am all too crazy about the set of wide receivers Tony Romo is working with, since when you get beyond Roy Williams, who still has to demonstrate that he can regain something close to the form that has seen him voted into the Pro Bowl in the past, there isn’t much that is out of the ordinary. In fact, as we look at our expert NFL picks, what Dallas has does not measure up to what many NFL non-contenders have.
However, at least Dallas has an explosive hybrid back in Felix Jones, a perennial Pro Bowl tight end in Jason Witten, and a strong offensive line. Furthermore, they have a quarterback who has shown that he can move the ball down the field in Romo. Tampa Bay is going to have problems moving the ball. What can Kellen Winslow do at this point? He needs to get back to his form of two years ago, when he was a mainstay of that Cleveland passing attack. Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham can function as more than a serviceable duo in the backfield, but at the quarterback spot, things are very iffy, with Byron Leftwich getting the start and Josh Freeman, the first-round draft pick who is very raw, sitting in reserve. This is something we recognized in the pre-season when doing our expert NFL picks.
The Cowboys will likely have its pass rush ready to go again, particularly DeMarcus Ware, who might be the best defensive player in the NFL. Over the last two years they have sacked the quarterback 105 times. Leftwich is not, and never has been known as a mobile passer, so this presents problems. It really doesn’t help that there is a certain degree of disorganization on the Tampa Bay sidelines, with novice head coach Raheem Morris having let go of offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski before the season opener.
I know that the Bucs are hoping their acquisition of Ward, who partnered with Brandon Jacobs in the Giants’ backfield last year, might do for them what Michael Turner did for the Falcons last season. However, as our expert NFL picks really explore the situation there, Tampa Bay is in that no man’s land right now where they don’t yet have a quarterback who can win some games in the NFL. Dallas did under-achieve toward the end of last year, and I’m not sure they can do it again, but the Bucs probably won’t be able to stop the Cowboys rampaging pass rush, which is enough for me to lay some points on the road.
In our expert NFL picks for Sunday, we’ll lay the points with the Cowboys, the six-point favorite in the BetUS Sportsbook.
Our PLAY: DALLAS -6 **
One reply on “Week 1 Cowboys vs. Bucs NFL Predictions”
The Cowboys are just too strong for a very disorganized Tampa Bay team. They will not have to rely on their offense to win this one, as the Dallas defensive will completely shut down the Bucs