NFL Betting Madness – Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
The Cincinnati Bengals (7-9 SU, 6-9-1 ATS in 2007) open their 2008 season with a banged-up QB and defensive questions as they visit the Baltimore Ravens (5-11 SU, 3-13 ATS in 2007) in an AFC North game that is set for kickoff on Sunday, September 7 at 1 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium (artificial turf) in Baltimore.
Sunday, September 7
BetUS NFL betting odds: CINCINNATI -1.5, Total 38
NOTABLE STAT: Cincinnati was 27th in total defense in 2007 (348.7 ypg)
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Baltimore is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games
In the BetUS NFL odds, the Bengals are listed as a 1.5-point road favorite, with a posted total of 38 points.
Here are some NFL betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* CIN has won four of its last six games SU
* CIN is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games
* CIN has lost eight of its last ten road games SU
* CIN is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight road games
* CIN has played five of its last six games UNDER the total
* BALT has lost nine of its last ten games SU
* BALT has covered two of its last ten games
* BALT has played six of its last seven games OVER the total
* BALT has covered three of its last nine home games
* BALT has won 15 of its last 21 home games SU
* BALT has played four of its last five home games OVER the total
Also…
* CIN has won and covered six of the last seven meetings
* Eight of the last 12 meetings have gone OVER the total
* BALT has won and covered 13 of the last 17 meetings as the home team
* Four of the last six meetings in Baltimore have gone OVER the total
To use the theme “a tale of two quarterbacks” might be a bit of a cliche, but that is pretty much what you have here. Carson Palmer, the former Heisman Trophy winner, got his nose broken in the pre-season for the Bengals. He say he is able to breathe out of it now just fine, but he will be wearing a visor on his helmet just the same in this opening game.
As for the Ravens, their situation is a mess. Kyle Boller, who was considered the front-runner to hold the starting job until first-round draft pick Joe Flacco was ready to take command, is now out for the season, as he will require shoulder surgery. Troy Smith is still laid up with effects from an illness, so Flacco will get his baptism under fire, which wasn’t supposed to happen until later in the year, if at all. And Todd Bouman was signed just a couple of days ago as the backup.
Flacco isn’t quite ready yet. The former Delaware star completed 26 of 50 passes in starting the final two pre-season games, but often had that “deer in the headlights” look about him. And he’ll wind up holding the ball a little too long.
Of course, the “deer in the headlights” look was what Steve McNair had in last season’ opener against the Bengals, when his offense turned the ball over six times in a game where the Ravens still had a 20-19 lead with eight minutes remaining, before Cincinnati punched in a TD and two-point conversion.
But the Bengals force turnovers. That’s what they do. Last year they had 34, and only a handful of teams had more.
Chad Johnson is now Chad Ocho Cinco. But he is still mouthing off. This time he was calling out a couple of the members of the Ravens defense – Bart Scott and Dawan Landry. he may not have to call out All-Pro safety Ed Reed, who will not be near 100% as he has avoided contact in pre-season drills. There are other injury problems for Baltimore, notably Willis McGahee, who had arthroscopic surgery on his knee and will give way to another Raven rookie, Ray Rice, if he can’t go.
Cincinnati comes in with questions, especially about the running game, where Rudi Johnson was cut last week, leaving them with Chris Perry, who’s gained only 337 career yards, as the starter at running back. Willie Anderson, the former Pro Bowl right tackle, was also cut and may in fact be signed by the Ravens.
On balance, however, Cincinnati will have far more working parts on offense, and with injuries still setting Baltimore back, and on defense they are healthier than last year’s catastrophe, as all the linebackers, it seems, were lost. There is but one way to go here, and that is with the visitor, the 1.5-point favorite in the BetUS NFL football betting odds.
JAY’S PLAY: CINCINNATI -1.5 ***
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