AFC Wild Card Line and Pick
The Dolphins have won nine of their last ten games to complete a ten-game improvement, and did so by bucking a trend and beating the Jets in the regular season finale. If you recall, the only win for Miami last year was a 22-16 overtime thriller at this site when Troy Smith was the Baltimore quarterback.
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
NFL Playoffs – Wild Card Round
BetUS NFL betting odds: BALTIMORE -3.5, Total 37.5
NOTABLE STAT: Miami has committed only 12 turnovers
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Ravens are 5-1 SU & ATS in last six road games
In the BetUS Sportsbook NFL football betting odds, the Ravens are listed as a 3.5-point favorite, with a posted total of 37.5 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* BALT has won and covered five of its last six games
* BALT has played 15 of its last 23 games OVER the total
* BALT has won and covered five of its last six road games
* BALT has played five of its last six road games OVER the total
* MIA has won its last five games SU
* MIA has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
* MIA has covered one of its last six home games
* MIA has won four of its last five home games SU
* MIA has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total
Also…
* MIA has won and covered 10 of the last 13 meetings
* MIA has won seven of the last nine meetings SU as the home team
* Five of the last seven meetings in Miami have gone UNDER the total
These teams last played back on October 19 at Dolphin Stadium, and the Ravens won by a 27-13 margin, and in doing so handled Miami’s “Wildcat” scheme pretty well, holding it to just four yards on five plays. They did so by blitzing, but as anyone who has run an option-type offense can tell you, a defense can potentially get burned when blitzing because it leaves gaping holes. Overall, the Dolphins out-gained the Ravens 359-357 in the game.
In that previous meeting, Chad Pennington threw an interception for a touchdown, but that has been the exception rather than the rule. Pennington has thrown 19 TD passes and just seven interceptions, and being careful with the ball has been a big part of the winning formula in Miami, as Tony Sporano’s club has turned it over just 12 times, producing a +14 turnover ratio.
Baltimore has been a hot team itself, winning nine of its last 11 games. Joe Flacco has done a good job of “managing” the game, completing 60% with 14 TD’s and 12 pickoffs. The running game has carried most of the burden for the Ravens. The average has not been astounding (four yards a carry) but it has produced 148.5 yards a game, which is tops in the AFC. The receivers are not the most fearsome in the NFL – Derrick Mason has 80 catches, but Mark Clayton is next on the list with 41. Flacco has sometimes held the ball too long, being sacked 32 times.
Cam Cameron surfaced in Baltimore as offensive coordinator after being fired from his head coaching job in Miami last year. That provides something of a storyline, as does a “homecoming” for people like Ed Reed and Willis McGahee, who went to the University of Miami. Two rookie head coaches are part of the scene as well, though it should be mentioned that a lot of the players on Baltimore’s roster have playoff experience.
Miami’s team has jelled, and is a different club than the one who faced the Ravens earlier. They will not make the big mistake. They have a two-headed running attack with Ronnie Brown (916 yards) and Ricky Williams (659). Joey Porter (17.5 sacks) will provide all the pressure Flacco can handle. Baltimore gives up almost 21 points per game on the road. They don’t have the kind of offense that is going to pull away from many opponents. Miami has covered seven straight games as an underdog.
Just as importantly, we don’t want to lay more than a field goal on the road with a rookie QB making his first playoff start, against a team with a veteran signal-caller that has won nine of ten games and doesn’t turn the ball over. Let’s take the points with the Miami Dolphins, the 3.5-point underdog in the BetUS NFL pro football playoff betting odds.
Our PLAY: MIAMI +3.5 ***
