NFL Betting – Week 1 Picks
We already looked ahead and made some Week-1 NFL picks over the summer. But now we have a full preseason of education under our belts. Which picks have changed as a result? Here are three games to try.
I’ll do my best to pick games that provide value and a decent chance of educated picks.
New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers
Thursday, September 8, 8:30 p.m. ET
NFL betting favorite: Packers -4
This isn’t nearly as easy of a pick as it seemed to be a month ago; the line shift from 5.5 to 4 suggests that oddsmakers agree.
You’ll be hard pressed to find two teams that had more impressive preseasons than the Saints and Packers. Drew Brees erased any concerns about his knee woes. The Saints’ “D” looks improved. Rookie running back Mark Ingram has been just as good as advertised and then some.
Meanwhile, the Pack have also been in midseason form. The success of both Aaron Rodgers and Matt Flynn under center shows just how nicely the offense is humming along. The Pack look like they’ll be healthier in Week 1 than they were when they won the Super Bowl last year.
Since the Pack are at home and they’re 7-2 ATS over their last nine when favored, I’ll stick with the defending champs.
Pick: Packers -4
Philadelphia Eagles @ St. Louis Rams
Sunday, September 11, 1:00 p.m. ET
NFL betting favorite: Eagles -4.5
The kneejerk reaction is to pick the Eagles in a walk here. But I wonder if this game has upset-special potential. Michael Vick didn’t have a very good preseason and the Eagles are on the road.
But…on second thought, I don’t think the Rams can pull it off. Sam Bradford has huge potential as a quarterback in Josh McDaniels’ offense but it’s very complicated to learn and Bradford didn’t even half a full offseason to do so because of the lockout. His spotty preseason suggests he’ll still have some growing pains. He could have trouble against an aggressive Eagles “D.” Also, Philly’s offense could be too speedy to handle on turf. Even if Vick’s arm is rusty, he’ll make plays with his feet.
I like the Rams to challenge for the NFC West crown this season but they’re 1-9-1 ATS in Week 1 over the last 11 seasons. This team starts slowly. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Pick: Eagles -4.5
Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears
Sunday, September 11, 1:00 p.m. ET
NFL betting favorite: Falcons -3
Yes, we know the Falcons will be one of the NFL’s most exciting teams this season. Matt Ryan threw 42 times in one half in his last preseason appearance. This team clearly wants to air it out and, with options like Roddy White and rookie Julio Jones, has the pass-catchers to do so effectively.
But I wonder if the hype train is out of control. Let’s not forget that the Falcons “D” was quite ordinary a year ago. Let’s also remember that they’re at Chicago this week and that the Bears, love them or hate them, were a division champ and NFC Championship finalist last season.
I think the Falcons will get a little wakeup call in Week 1, just as they did last season against Pittsburgh. The Bears “D” should play tough at home and Mike Martz’s offense could be more effective in its second go-round this season.
Pick: Bears +3
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