St. Louis Rams (1-13) at Arizona Cardinals (9-5)
Sunday December 27, 2009 4:05 PM EST
The Line: Arizona Cardinals – 14
The Arizona Cardinals continue their march toward getting back to the Super Bowl as their opponent this week, the St. Louis Rams, look to be headed towards the number one overall pick in the NFL draft.
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The Cardinals had gone on a tear winning five of six from mid October to mid November but since then the Cards are about .500 and have been inconsistent not just on a week to week basis but on a half to half basis. Last week Arizona looked to have the Lions put away early but in the second half they let the Lions back into it and nearly lost the game outright. It really has been feast or famine in Arizona as this same team who shellacked the Minnesota Vikings lost badly to San Francisco and Tennessee. In the Titans game, it was the same story where they managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory allowing Vince Young to lead the Titans down the entire field to a game winning touchdown as time was winding down. It isn’t a lack of talent for Arizona and it’s really hard to pin point what the exact issue is and why this team isn’t running away with home field advantage for the NFC. The offense is outstanding and the defense has one of the best secondaries in all of football. Against San Francisco it was the turnovers which just stymied the Cards. It will be interesting to see if Arizona can capture the same magic they had a year ago.
It’s tough to even write about the St. Louis Rams because it’s tough to think about just how bad this team, who dominated the early part of this decade has gotten. As we have seen from other teams like the Patriots and Colts who have drafted first overall and won the Super Bowl, maybe if you are going to be bad you may as well be really bad and if you are going to be competitive, build a team that is capable fo going all the way. The Rams look like they will get their chance to pick first and either fill a bi void or possibly trade the pick for some help in more than one area. I am a firm believer that when a team drafts in the first five or so picks, it’s equally if not more important who they pick they following rounds as those picks are almost like late selections of the earlier rounds. 
Of course we’ll talk about this plenty in a few months but more than likely the Rams won’t be thinking running back as Steven Jackson may be the best there is this year as to play on a team as bad as he does and still put up numbers is nothing short of remarkable. The Rams average only 11 points a game and give up over 26 each time out. This team has big problems.
Arizona is 4-1 against the spread following a game which they didn’t cover, 7-3 againsthe spread in their last 10 home games, and just 1-4 against the psread in their last five as a favorite. St. Louis is 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games as an underdog but they are just 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 10 1/2 or more points. The home team has covered four of the last five games in this series.
This is another one of those games with the types of spreads we saw early in the season that the favorites were covering but they haven’t been covering lately. The difference now is we have teams with something to play for and teams that have nothing to play for. Last week should have served as a wake up call to the Cardinals and if they can’t get it done this week, they simply aren’t good enough as it can’t be a lack of interest as the playoffs are just a few weeks away. The Cardinals are infinitely better so I’ll lay the points as uncomfortable as it is but I will keep the play small.
Mitch’s Pick: Arizona Cardinals – 14
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One reply on “ATS Pick: St. Louis vs. Arizona (Wk 16)”
While the Rams are a very bad team, with nothing on the line for the Cardinals as they have clinched the NFC West and really cannot improve their position to get a bye you wonder how motivated will they be in this game. 14 points are an awful lot if they decide to rest their starters.