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Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Week 5 Preview & Free Pick

NFL Handicapping – Ravens vs. Chiefs Betting Spread / Matchup

The Ravens (3-1) have won 2 straight and are tied with the Bengals atop the AFC North. Unlike the last few years the Ravens are led by their offense, as their defense has not been the dominant unit we are used to seeing.

Venue/ Stadium: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Time/Date: 1 PM EST Saturday, October 7, 2012
NFL Odds From: Sportsbook.ag
Moneyline: Ravens -260 / Chiefs +220  
Spread: Ravens -6
Over/Under: 46.5  

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs Preview

The Chiefs (1-3) are in the basement of the AFC West and while they have a great rushing offense they do not have much else and Matt Cassel’s QB job may be in jeopardy. NFL lines have the Ravens as 6-point away favorites with a total of 46.5.

In their last games the Ravens beat the Cleveland Browns 23-16 while the Chiefs lost to the San Diego Chargers 37-20.

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On the season the Ravens are 2-2 ATS with an Over/Under record of 3-1 and the Chiefs are 1-3 ATS with an Over/Under record of 3-1.

The Ravens struggled in their only road game of the season and 3 of their next 4 games are on the road.

Joe Flacco leads Baltimore and their 4th ranked passing offense and he has a couple of solid targets in Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin, who have combined for 35 catches, for 4 TD, and 581 receiving yards. Smith is averaging over 20 yards per catch on the season. The Chiefs’ pass defense has been pretty good this season ranking 11th in the league and they held the Chargers to under 200 passing yards last week.

The Chiefs have struggled to defend the run this season and that is good news for Ray Rice, as he really struggled last week against the Browns with only 49 rushing yards averaging less than 3 yards per carry.

Cassel has a decent WR corps, but he has to find them and for the season he has more INT (7) than TD (5). There is a good chance he will get back on track since the Baltimore pass defense only ranks 29th in the league. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

While the run defense is the strength of the Baltimore defense the key for the Chiefs winning is running the ball. They have the top-ranked rushing offense led by Jamaal Charles, who ranks 2nd in the league in rushing yards and is averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Cassel has shown he cannot carry the offense, so if the Ravens can keep Charles from having a big game they will be in great shape.

In some betting trends for this AFC match up the Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, and they have an Over record of 8-3 in their last 11 road games.

The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home, and they have an Under record of 7-2 in their last 9 home games.

Jason’s Pick: Charles will have a good game, but Cassel will struggle again, as the Ravens’ offense will not be stopped and they will easily win this game and cover the spread.


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About Jason Green

Jason Green is back with Cappers Picks again to give out his free sports plays. As always he's hoping the Braves and Redskins can win a championship since their last one in the 90’s was long ago. He’s starting to know the pain of Cubs fans.