NFL Betting – Week 4 Picks
Week 3 showed how dangerous the dreaded double-digit point spread can be, as I got burned by picking San Diego and Pittsburgh to cover huge numbers. I won’t make that same mistake this week.
WEEK 3 ATS PICKS RECORD: 2-2
SEASON ATS PICKS RECORD: 9-5
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, October 2, 1:00 p.m. ET
NFL betting favorite: Cowboys -1
The one-point spread here is justified, as I personally keep flip –flopping on this pick. My first reaction was to pick the Cowboys. They showed they could win ugly on Monday night, overcoming countless mistakes and injuries as Tony Romo led them to an 18-16 victory over Dallas. With their pass rush and stellar run defense, they could be Detroit’s toughest test yet.
On the other hand, the Lions faced a similar defense last week in Minnesota’s. The Vikings are loaded with stout run stoppers and pass rushers, so Matthew Stafford beat them by attacking the ho-hum secondary with Calvin Johnson in the passing game. He should succeed by doing the same thing against Dallas this week. The Cowboys haven’t faced an offense as remotely dynamic as Detroit’s so far this season. The Lions are also no slouches on defense. Their secondary is beatable but, with Miles Austin out and Dez Bryant playing hurt, I’m not sure Dallas can exploit any mismatches.
Pick: Lions +1
New Orleans Saints @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 2, 1:00 p.m. ET
NFL betting favorite: Saints -7
I vowed to avoid double-digit spreads, so the Saints line of one touchdown is about as far as I want to go right now.
Still, even though it’s seven points on the road, it’s very tough to imagine Jacksonville keeping up in this game. Saints defensive co-ordinator Gregg Williams will blitz young, green rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Maurice Jones-Drew will see plenty of stacked boxes running the ball, too.
The Jags should keep New Orleans’ committee rushing attack in check but Drew Brees should have a big game with all day to throw against Jacksonville’s wimpy pass rush.
Pick: Saints -7
Washington Redskins @ St. Louis Rams
Sunday, October 2, 1:00 p.m. ET
NFL betting favorite: PK
I’m making a “gut feeling” pick here. The Rams have done very little to inspire confidence over their first three games but they faced the Eagles, Giants and Ravens. After this week, they get the Packers, Cowboys and Saints. The Rams desperately need to win this week, as the Redskins look like their only beatable opponent in their first seven matchups.
St. Louis’ defense has been bad but not as bad as the numbers look so far. It’s capable of stepping up against Rex Grossman, who could make some dumb throws inside a loud dome environment on the road. Washington’s pass defense looked good on Monday night – but did Dallas just make the Redskins look good? Tony Romo was hurt, his depleted receiving corps was confused about the playbook all night and his center kept snapping the ball at the wrong times. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Rams shouldn’t be as disorganized on Sunday. Look for Sam Bradford to have his best game so far this season.
Pick: Rams
New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 2, 8:20 p.m. ET
NFL betting favorite: Ravens -3.5
I don’t the Jets are ready for what Baltimore will throw at them on Sunday. They faced a strong passing attack in Week 1 against Dallas, a pile of garbage against Jacksonville in Week 2 and a powerhouse rushing attack at Oakland last week.
The Ravens are a balanced offense who can burn you with Joe Flacco’s arm or Ray Rice’s legs. The Jets may not have an answer. Their offense, which is sputtering on the ground, could struggle against Baltimore’s talented defense as well.
Later in the year, the Jets would make a strong showing, but I think they’ll head into this game a bit soft and get a rude awakening.
Pick: Ravens -3.5
This is the Week 4 series of free NFL Pick articles by our experts here at CappersPicks.com. Check back with us all NFL Betting season long, and keep on winning those NFL Bets folks!
