Cappers Picks Weekly Handicapping Preview – Week 17
Merry Christmas everyone – I hope that your holiday was as profitable as mine! Last week was a 3-1-0 week with only the brutal Chargers letting me down.
This week is littered with quality matchups – some have playoff significance and others are just purely fascinating.
So let’s get right to the Cappers Picks Weekly Handicapping Preview – Week 17.
I hope this week is as lucrative as last!
WEEK 16 ATS PICKS RECORD: 3-1-0
SEASON ATS PICKS RECORD: 39-26-3
Detroit at Green Bay
Sunday, January 1, 1:00 PM ET
NFL Betting Favorite: Lions -3.5
Two NFC North teams heading to the playoffs meet on Sunday with little to be determined. The main question is – How much will Aaron Rogers and the Packers starters play? Either way, this game has a chance to be a shootout – one that could reasonably turn out to be the most exciting game of the weekend (even if Rodgers only plays one half!).
The Detroit Lions have won three straight games to gain and NFC playoff berth and are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games overall, including 7-2 SU in their last nine on the road. The Lions are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games and are 2-3-1 ATS in their last six on the road. In their last 11 games against Green Bay, the Lions are 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS. Detroit is 0-5 SU in their last five at Green Bay and is 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 at Packers. Green Bay is a stunning 20-1 SU in their last 21 games and 5-0 SU in their last five at home. The Packers have absolutely owned the Lions in their last 11 games.
This game has Lions written all over it, despite what the stats say. Coach Jim Swartz has already vowed to play his starters all game – Packers Coach Mike McCarthy will almost certainly rest his stars. The only way to beat the Packers is to put up 40 points and the Lions are certainly capable of that! With Green Bay’s Studs on the sidelines, I like the Lions to cover in this one!
Pick: Detroit Lions -3 ½
Carolina at New Orleans
Sunday, January 1, 1:00 PM ET
NFL Betting Favorite: Saints -10
With the AFC South locked up and Drew Brees’s chase for Dan Marino’s record already taken care of, there are a lot of questions surrounding the availability of the Saints stars in the Regular Season finale. New Orleans, like Green Bay may opt to rest a few of their players later in the game – the Number Two seed is still on the line so the Saints would still love a victory.
The Carolina Panthers are 4-1 SU in their last five games but are just 7-18 SU in their last 25. They are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games on the road but are 7-2 SU in their last nine games in New Orleans. The Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against Carolina and 0-5 ATS in their last five games at home against the Panthers.
Two very high powered offenses go head-to-head on Sunday. A good play here is the Over (55 points). But for a Spread point of view, you have to love the Panthers to continue their strong recent play in New Orleans. Chances are that Drew Brees and the boys will take some snaps off in this one and that should be enough for the Panthers to at very least make this a close game.
Pick: Carolina Panthers +10
Kansas City at Denver
Sunday, January 1, 4:15 PM ET
NFL Betting Favorite: Broncos -3
Kyle Orton comes back to Denver only a few weeks after getting released by the very same Broncos to take on the Quarterback that he was let go for and the team that he once led. The formula for the Broncos is simple – win and you’re in. But Kyle Orton and company would love nothing more than to spoil the party in Colorado. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Denver Broncos are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games against the AFC, 8-23-1 against the spread against a team with a losing record, and 2-7-1 against the spread as a home favorite of up to three points. The Kansas City Chiefs are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games as an underdog, 5-2 against the spread following a loss, and 1-5 against the spread against the AFC. The road team as covered in five of the last six meetings of these two.
While it is a good story with Mr. Orton returning to Denver, the Broncos will have learned one thing from their last game – RUN THE BALL. Don’t expect Tim Tebow to do a whole lot of throwing in this one. At home, after two straight losses, I like the Broncos to bounce back and make their way into what will certainly be a short stay in the playoffs.
Pick: Denver Broncos -3
Dallas at NY Giants
Sunday, January 1, 8:30 PM ET
NFL Betting Favorite: Giants -2 ½
It is pretty hard to like the Dallas Cowboys ahead of their Week 17 showdown with the Giants. It is pretty easy to see who has the momentum going into Sunday’s game – the Cowboys are coming off a 20-7 loss to Philadelphia with a banged up Tony Romo and the Giants are coming off an impressive 29-14 win over the Jets in Week 16.
The New York Giants are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven against the NFC East, 1-4-1 against the spread in their last five home games, and 0-4-1 against the spread in their last five games as a favorite. The Dallas Cowboys are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games as an underdog, 1-5 against the spread in their last six games overall, and 0-5 against the spread in their last six games against the NFC East. The underdog has covered five in a row in this series.
We all know Tony Romo’s record in December and in playoff games – not good! Now he faces the prospect of facing his most hated rival with a bad throwing hand on the road. Dallas has shown that anything that smells like the playoffs is their kryptonite – the Giants get it done and save Tom Coughlin’s job!
Pick: New York Giants -2 ½
This is the Week 17 series of free NFL Pick articles by our experts here at CappersPicks.com. Check back with us all NFL Betting season long, and keep on winning those NFL Bets folks!
