NFL Playoff Upset Alert – New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers
Back in 2005 the Jets hoofed the Chargers playoff hopes in the groin by toppling them 20-17 in the wild card round of the playoffs. For a team that usually finds itself in the post season, the Chargers haven’t found success that often and that is a trend that I see continuing when they face the Jets on Sunday. History will repeat itself this weekend.
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Of course, you can make cases that Philip Rivers has matured and that the Jets don’t stand a chance of beating a team that ranks 4th in the NFL in scoring with 28.4 points per game. The problem is that aside from Rivers’ experience over the past year, that’s the same argument NFL football betting experts made in favor of the Chargers every year. The fact is that defense still wins championships. Five of the past seven Super Bowl Champions have had a top-3 defense and while the Chargers are an impressive scoring machine, they still rank 11th in points allowed.
The Jets possess the league’s best overall scoring defense, allowing just 14.8 points per game. Darrell Revis has been a defensive coordinator’s dream, as he’s successfully shut down half of the vertical plane. The rushing defense for the Jets, even without Kris Jenkins, ranks 7th on the road with just 100.3 yards allowed. I know it’s hard to imagine the Jets soaring to the Super Bowl in the 2009 season, but they match up very well against the Chargers.
If you’re sold on San Diego’s rushing game, then maybe we’re watching different teams because all I see is an aging LaDanian Tomlinson and a team that gains just 78.5 yards on the ground when they’re playing at home. Yet it’s not New York’s defense that has me siding with them as the sports betting upset pick of the weekend. 
New York Jets (9-7) vs. San Diego Chargers (13-3)
Sunday, January 17th — Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego — 4:30pm EST
NFL Betting Line: San Diego -7 (42)
I’ve been crucifying Mark “Dirty” Sanchez for his inability to play in cold weather. The fact that Sanchez is uncomfortable playing in the cold has been one of the underlying jokes in the NFL because the Jets are a cold weather team. But guess where the game is this weekend? Yep – California. Sanchez’s home state and the state where he attended USC as the leading man of the Trojans.
Sanchez literally cooled off mid-season as the weather turned, but somehow in Cincinnati last weekend he found the elbow room to go nearly perfect as a passer. He threw 12-of-15 for 182 yards and a touchdowns, and Braylon had another drop in the end zone which would’ve raised Sanchez’s 139.4 rating in that game dramatically.
I also think that the combo of Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones is far more formidable than that of Sproles-Tomlinson because both backs are huge trucks posing as tailbacks. Their north-south running styles will wear out a 3-4 defense that relies on speed and agility and that will simply open up time for Mark Sanchez to rip passes over exhausted linebacker heads to Dustin Keller and his other receivers.
It may seem like I’m insanely infatuated with The Dirty but I’m not. There are other facets of the Jets that I think out perform the Chargers. Alan Faneca will destroy any defensive linemen trying to get to his quarterback. Tony Richardson will be hammering clear paths at fullback. Bart Scott is an animal at linebacker and will see to it that the speed of Sproles is nullified, and that Antonio Gates won’t get out of hand.
The Jets aren’t just about Sanchez, and that’s what people seem to be forgetting. At 6-1 SU/ATS in their last 7 games and 5-1 SU/ATS on the road, I love the Jets this weekend especially with all of those delicious points. No game, to me, has a better chance of hitting a lowered TOTAL than this one. It will be a stiff battle between Rivers and Revis and Thomas Jones against Merriman, but the Jets come out on top in a grueling battle that sends a rookie quarterback to the AFC Championship yet again.
The future is already present in New York. For the Chargers, the 2009 playoffs will have the same ending that they always do: major disappointment for them and their heated betting investors.
Free Pick: NYJ +7 (OVER)
One reply on “Divisional Playoffs: Jets vs Chargers NFL Predictions”
Watching Baltimore self destruct against a better team yesterday should be all you need to jump all over the Chargers today. The Jets are a good solid team, but I question how well they will hold up against superior competition.