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Chargers vs Broncos AFC Divisional Betting Predictions & Preview

Chargers vs Broncos NFL Playoffs Betting?

Broncos Host Chargers for Right to Play for AFC Crown

The Denver Broncos get back to business this week when they host one of four intriguing Divisional Round games. Their opponent this week? The surprising San Diego Chargers – a team that beat Denver 27-20 at Mile High in Week 14.

2014 AFC Divisional Playoffs
San Diego (9-7) at Denver (13-3)
When: 4:40 PM ET, Sunday, January 12, 2014
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
Broadcast: CBS
Chargers vs. Broncos Betting Lines
San Diego Chargers +10 -115 Ov 55 -110
Denver Broncos -10 -105 Un 55 -110

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The Chargers will be able to play loose once again like they did last week – all of the pressure is squarely on Peyton Manning and the Broncos ahead of this game.

The San Diego Chargers are certainly making the most of a blown call in Week 17, a virtual bye after the Chiefs rested 22 of 24 starters in the final week of the season, and a Cincinnati team that just can’t seem to win in the playoffs. What does it all mean? A playoff date in Denver against a team they had a ton of success against in Week 15.

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The Chargers formula for success in that game was ball control – keeping the rock out of the hands of Peyton Manning and the boys. San Diego ran for 44 times for 177 yards, including Ryan Matthews rumbling for 127 yards on 27 carries. They allowed the Broncos just 21 minutes in the time of possession battle. In turn the Broncos scored nearly 14 less points than their season average in the loss.

Obviously the game plan will have to be similar Sunday. Long drives, chewing up the clock and scoring each and every time an opportunity is presented will be paramount – a perfect game plan like in Week 15 will win the game again.

On the flip side, Denver’s unflattering defense will have to get off the field with more regularity and they will have to do it without Vonn Miller. Physicality and execution is key for the defense in this game. Two defensive starters were benched in Week 15 – their inclusion in the lineup will be welcomed in a big way this week.
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Denver will need to get more from their running game as well Sunday – something that they had zero success with in the last meeting. Knowshon Moreno gained just 18 yards on 11 carries in Week 15 – something that is going to have to change if the Broncos hope to have success.

Peyton Manning gets another crack at the league’s 29th ranked passing defense. He will have Wes Welker back in the fold. Keep in mind that this is the same Broncos team that scored an NFL-record 603 points during the regular season, which works out to an average of 37.9 points per game. But they mustered only 24 per outing vs. the Chargers. Welker, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Julius Thomas all exist for the best passing game in the history of the NFL.

AFC Divisional Football Betting Prediction

A few trends to consider:
• Under is 10-2 in SD last 12 vs. AFC.
• SD are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games in January.
• Under is 6-2 in SD last 8 road games.
• DEN are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC West.
• DEN are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
• DEN are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff home games.
• Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Denver.
• SD are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

Something about the Denver seems to bring the best out in Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers. In Week 9 the Broncos won by eight but Manning came out of that game with a sprained ankle. The Chargers won the time of possession in a huge way in that game. In the second matchup of the season the Chargers parlayed the time of possession edge into a seven point win. The numbers seem to point to the Chargers covering the 10 point spread.

At first I loved the Broncos to destroy the Chargers but further research has me leaning the Chargers way. The Broncos did lose as a 9.5 point favorite at this time last year against Baltimore and they were 10 point faves in the earlier meeting between the teams this year. Double digit spreads haunt the Broncos! I like Denver to prevail Sunday but in a close well played game.

Pick: San Diego Chargers to cover the 10

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About DaveB

Dave B has been a Fantasy Football writer for us for 10 years. A couch potato wannabe, Dave’s insights have been read by 10’s of people for years. He hope’s for world peace + global relaxation. Enjoy and remember only smoke things that are completely natural.


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