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Denver vs. Green Bay Free Week 4 Preview & Pick

Bet On NFL Football – Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers Gambling Preview

The Denver Broncos are 1-2 but all of their games have been close, decided by three points or less.  Last week they were winning late but Matt Hasselbeck was able to engineer a Titans TD drive in the closing minutes for Tennessee to steal the game.  

Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field – Green Bay Wisconsin
Sunday October 2 – 4:15PMMoneyline:  Green Bay -625, Denver +450
Spread (ATS): Green Bay -13.5
Over/Under: 46
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes

Denver

The only shining part of the Broncos game this season is the defense.  They are in the top half in all major categories.

After all that quarterback controversy stuff in the preseason Kyle Orton has been just OK.   Tim Tebow has yet to throw a pass this season but if things get out of hand on Sunday he might get thrown in there.  Denver has to get better at running the ball to give Orton a chance.  Their top two backs are Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee, neither is averaging even 3 yards per carry.

Denver hasn’t beaten Green Bay since 1999…which was the first year of John Elway’s retirement.  (Full disclosure they have only played twice since then).  Even though their games have been close Denver is just 1-2 ATS this season.  I am not sure why but they were favourites at home in weeks 1 and 2.  They covered on the road last week and might be able to pull a backdoor job this weekend.

Green Bay

Green Bay didn’t even play that well last week and still cruised to a 10 point victory over the Bears.   [soliloquy id=”82219″]

The Packers have looked very good this season in defending their crown but this was their least impressive performance to date – they only sacked Jay Cutler three times.  This team has picked up right where they left off in the Super Bowl and there isn’t much hope for Denver on Sunday.

The brightest spot from last week was the play of running back Ryan Grant.  He was hurt most of last year and appeared tentative in the early going this year.  He rushed for 92 yards against Chicago and may have reclaimed his status as lead back away from James Starks.  On the receiving side of things TE JerMichael Finley continues to show why the Packers might be even better this season – he had three TDs last Sunday.

This is the largest number on the board this week and that is the only reason to pause in terms of backing Green Bay.  That said all the trend data says they are the play except for an obscure one about how they are just 1-4 ATS in week 4 recently.  The number is a little too rich for me even though I think the Packers will win going away.

ATS Pick:  Green Bay -13.5
Over/Under Pick:  Over
Score Prediction:  Green Bay 38 – Denver 17

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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.


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