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Dolphins vs. Bills Gambling Odds & Week 11 Free NFL Pick

Miami vs Buffalo Betting

The Bills (3-6) have lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 games and they sit in the basement of the AFC East. The Bills have lost 2 straight to the Dolphins (4-5) and they will be without RB Fred Jackson, but they did play decent in their last game.

Venue/ Stadium: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo, NY
Time/Date: 8:20 PM EST Thursday, November 15, 2012
NFL Odds From: WagerWeb
Moneyline: OFF
Spread: Bills -1.5
Over/Under:  45.5

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Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Preview

After winning 3 straight to get back in the division race the Dolphins have lost 2 in a row and they were crushed in their last game. NFL lines have the Bills as slight 1.5-point home favorites in this game with a total of 45.5.

In their last games the Bills narrowly lost to the New England Patriots 37-31 while the Dolphins were embarrassed losing to the Tennessee Titans 37-3.


On the season both teams are 4-5 ATS and the Bills have an Over/Under record of 6-3 and the Dolphins have an Over/Under record of 3-6.

Buffalo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 337 yards with 2 TD in the loss to the Patriots, but was picked off in the end zone at the end of the game. His main target is Steve Johnson, who has 41 catches for 502 yards and 4 TD, but the Bills do not have a deep WR corps. However, even though that is the case they will be facing a Miami pass defense that only ranks 28th in the league.

The Fish do rank 5th in the league in run defense, but they were torched last week giving up 177 rushing yards to the Titans. With Jackson out C.J. Spiller will be the main RB and has averaged over 7 yards per carry this season. It is key that the Bills do not get down early, as they need to establish the ground game. If they get down early they will have to go to the air and takes away from their strength, which is running the ball.[soliloquy id=”82219″]

Ryan Tannehill wants to forget about the Titans’ game where he was picked off 3 times He only has 1 passing TD in his last 3 games. While it is not that key that he passes for TD it is key that he avoids the turnover. He will need help from the rushing game and Reggie Bush only had 21 yards in the loss to the Titans after sitting for most of the game after an early fumble. He may get back on track facing a Dolphins’ run defense that ranks dead last in the league.

Buffalo also ranks dead in the league allowing 31.7 points per game.

In some betting trends for this AFC East match up the Dolphins are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games, 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall, and they have an Under record of 5-0 in their last 5 games.

The Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win, and they have an Over record of 5-0 in their last 5 home games.

Jason’s Pick: The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 games against the Bills and that trend will continue. I think Miami will play decent defense and with the weak Buffalo D the Dolphins will score quite a few points and they will win.


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About Jason Green

Jason Green is back with Cappers Picks again to give out his free sports plays. As always he's hoping the Braves and Redskins can win a championship since their last one in the 90’s was long ago. He’s starting to know the pain of Cubs fans.