Analyzing Super Bowl Gambling Trends
The Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos will head out to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey to play in the first cold-weather Super Bowl of the modern era to crown the champion of Super Bowl XLVIII.
Super Bowl XLVIII
Seattle Seahawks (15-3) vs. Denver Broncos (15-3)
Date: Sunday, February 2, 2014
Time: 6:25 PM ET
Venue: MetLife Stadium
City: East Rutherford, New Jersey
O/U Odds: 47
Spread: Denver -2.5
Money Line: Denver -135, Seattle +115
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While the teams haven’t met in the regular season since September of 2010, there is still some past history that we can look back on to give us an idea of how this game may play out.
Now, first be warned that for every good trend there is a bad one that can mislead observers that aren’t willing to do their homework. For example, the team wearing white has won eight of the last nine Super Bowls. Does that mean there is an 88.9 percent likelihood that Seattle wins the Super Bowl this year? Of course not.
Well, how about whether or not the NFL MVP is on your roster? Having a player that dominated the regular season seems like a good proposition, but has that success carried over to the playoffs?
Peyton Manning is clearly the runaway MVP this season after smashing the record books during the regular year.
That seems like an advantage for the Broncos, but believe it or not, NFL MVPs are 6-11 straight up and 5-10-2 against the number all-time in the Super Bowl, including four consecutive losses, one of which belongs to Manning in Indianapolis’s loss to New Orleans in Super Bowl XLIV as 5-point favorites.
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Sticking with Manning, his status of the winner of the worst-weather Super Bowl may be a tad skewed given the type of weather he dealt with in Tampa Bay – rain. Now he’s going to be playing in a dry, cold weather Super Bowl, the coldest in history, with temperatures expected in the low 30s. Manning is 0-4 in his career in postseason games with a temperature of 40 degrees or below at kickoff.
The low spread seems to lean in Denver’s favor though, as the favorite is 7-4 ATS in the 11 Super Bowls with a spread of a field goal or less.
The Seahawks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games versus opponents with a winning record.
The Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Looking at the total, the under has been money this postseason, cashing in eight of 10 times after consecutive unders in both games on Championship Weekend. With frigid cold weather expected on Sunday, many expect more of the same, but how have teams responded in cold weather?
As a matter of fact, the over is 84-56-3 in games played in temperature of 31 degrees or below since 2004, and that number improves the colder it gets, with the over cashing in at a rate of 23-12-1 in games played in temperatures of 19 degrees or below in that same time frame.
The game is expected to be close, so how will that play into total? Well, of the 47 Super Bowls played thus far, 11 have seen a spread of 3-points or fewer. The over is 7-4 in those games, and 4-1-1 in the last six Super Bowls.
It’s also worth noting that the total for the game is currently sitting at 47.5 points, which would make it the lowest total for a Broncos game this season.
The under is 7-0 in Seattle’s last seven games overall.
