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Handicapping Week 4 Gambling Trends: ATS Stats, Angles, & NFL Matchups

2014 Cappers NFL Database Trends

The field of undefeated teams has been winnowed down to just three heading into week four:  Philadelphia, Arizona and Cincinnati. None of these teams are considered among the elite but opinions might be changing about the likes of San Francisco and Green Bay after last weekend.  

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NFL Handicappers Trend Analysis

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Today we want to point out other NFL wagering angles that have produced results in recent years. So having said that, here are some NFL week 4 against the spread, Over / Under and Head to Head NFL trends we feel you should be keeping your eye on for some KEY NFL Week 4 matchups.

Let’s have a look at some of the key games coming up in Week 4.

Green Bay at Chicago

Sunday September 28
1:00PM
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Green Bay -1.5

Green Bay

  • Packers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games in Week 4.
  • Packers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in September.

Chicago

  • Over is 6-0 in Bears last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 vs. NFC.
  • Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC North.

Head to Head

  • Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Chicago.
  • Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
  • Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago.

This game is more meaningful for the Packers but I am not sure they should be been installed as the favourites. The Bears are far from great but with a couple of points cushion they can get another outright win this week.

Carolina at Baltimore

Sunday September 28
1:00PM
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Baltimore -3

Carolina

  • Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 4.
  • Under is 5-0 in Panthers last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
  • Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Baltimore

  • Over is 5-0 in Ravens last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Ravens are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Ravens are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Neither team has looked great but I am going to back the Ravens at home. The Panthers may be 2-1 so far but they are playing against type and success won’t keep coming if they don’t find their running game.

Tennessee at Indianapolis

Sunday September 28
1:00PM
RCA Dome
Indianapolis -7.5

Tennessee

  • Under is 5-0 in Titans last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Under is 3-0-1 in Titans last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 5-0 in Titans last 5 games overall.

Indianapolis

  • Over is 5-0 in Colts last 5 games overall.
  • Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
  • Over is 4-0 in Colts last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Head to Head

  • Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
  • Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Indianapolis.
  • Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Indianapolis.

Indianapolis is only 1-2 but their losses are acceptable. They are expected to win the division and this game will show why. Look for a double digit victory against hapless Tennessee.

Tampa Bay vs. Pittsburgh

Sunday September 28
1:00PM
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Pittsburgh -9

Tampa Bay

  • Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
  • Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Tampa Bay is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road

Pittsburgh

  • Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
  • Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
  • Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay

Head to Head

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

Last game out Ben Roethlisberger completed 22 of 30 pass attempts for 196 yards and 2 TDs for the Steelers in the win over Carolina.

It’s hard to think he can’t repeat this type of performance vs. Lovie Smith’s troops. Le’Veon Bell had 147 rushing yards on Sunday. I’d expect the Steelers to control the ball and win easily.

Philadelphia at San Francisco

Sunday September 28
4:25PM
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco -5.5

Philadelphia

  • Eagles are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 4.
  • Over is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games in September.
  • Over is 7-1 in Eagles last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

San Francisco

  • 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 4.
  • Under is 6-1 in 49ers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 vs. NFC.

Head to Head

  • Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in San Francisco.
  • Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in San Francisco.
  • Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.

It says a lot about power rankings that the 49ers are still a solid favourite with the perfect Eagles coming to town. I saw ride the streak a little longer. At the very least you are likely to get an ATS win.

New Orleans @ Dallas

Sunday September 28
8:30PM
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
New Orleans -3

New Orleans

  • Under is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games following a ATS win.
  • Under is 6-0 in Saints last 6 games following a S.U. win.
  • Under is 6-0 in Saints last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

Dallas

  • Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 4.
  • Cowboys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games following a S.U. win.

Head to Head

  • Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
  • Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

New Orleans could be finding their groove, while Dallas certainly has…on offense. Whichever team can make just a few stops should take this one. My bet is on the Saints.

New England at Kansas City

Monday September 29
8:30PM
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
New England -3.5

New England

  • Patriots are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
  • Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4.
  • Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.

Kansas City

  • Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
  • Over is 3-0-1 in Chiefs last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 Monday games.

Head to Head

  • Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Probably the best value on the board this week is New England. They didn’t look strong against the Patriots and now is the time to take advantage. Its not like Brady is going to be rattled on the road on a Monday night.

Check out our Updated NFL Week 4 Odds.



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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.


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