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Handicapping Week 16 Gambling Trends: ATS Stats, Angles, & NFL Matchups

2014 Cappers NFL Database Trends

Only a couple of weeks left to the season and still lots to be settled, especially in the AFC. I am also looking forward to Seattle vs. Arizona, just to see what happens.

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NFL Handicappers Trend Analysis

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Let’s have a look at some of the key games coming up in Week 16.

San Diego vs. San Francisco

Saturday December 20
8:25PM
Levi’s Field – Santa Clara, CA
49ers -2.5, 41.5

San Diego

  • Under is 7-0 in Chargers last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
  • Under is 6-0 in Chargers last 6 Saturday games.
  • Under is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

San Francisco

  • 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
  • Under is 5-0 in 49ers last 5 games overall.
  • Under is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 games on grass.

The 49ers season is sunk but if they have any pride left at all they should take advantage of a San Diego team coming off back to back losses. They really only have to win the game to make you a winner too.

Baltimore vs. Houston

Sunday December 21
1:00PM
NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
Ravens -4, 42

Baltimore

  • Over is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 games on grass.
  • Ravens are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.

Houston

  • Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 16.
  • Under is 5-0-1 in Texans last 6 games in Week 16.
  • Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.

Head to Head

  • Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Houston.
  • Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

The Texans are on the fringe but can they stay in it for a week longer. I don’t think they will make the playoffs but I like them to make if very difficult for the Ravens as well. +4 is a very nice value spot.

Kansas City vs. Pittsburgh

Sunday December 21
1:00PM
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Steelers -3.5, 46

Kansas City

  • Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
  • Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

Pittsburgh

  • Over is 6-0 in Steelers last 6 home games.
  • Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
  • Over is 7-0 in Steelers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.

Head to Head

  • Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
  • Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

I am not giving the Chiefs much of a chance this week. I never really thought of them as a contender and Pittsburgh is closing well. They can get a solid victory at home this week.

Indianapolis vs. Dallas

Sunday December 21
4:25PM
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Cowboys -3, 55

Indianapolis

  • Over is 4-0 in Colts last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • Colts are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 16.

Dallas

  • Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 16.
  • Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
  • Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Dallas really showed up last week at Philly but they have been playing better on the road all season long. I like the Colts chances to win what should be a very entertaining game. Luck +3 is always a nice one to take.

Seattle vs. Arizona

Sunday December 21
4:25PM
University of Phoenix Stadium – Glendale, AZ
Seahawks -7.5, 37.5

Seattle

  • Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 vs. NFC.
  • Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Arizona

  • Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Head to Head

  • Over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Arizona.
  • Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Arizona.
  • Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

That number looks huge but it is well justified based on what we are seeing from both of these teams. Arizona will need a big effort to get this one even though it is on their own turf. Seattle if flying right now.

Denver vs. Cincinnati

Monday December 22
8:30PM
Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Broncos -3.5

Denver

  • Under is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games in December.
  • Under is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games following a S.U. win.
  • Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.

Cincinnati

  • Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 16.

Head to Head

  • Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
  • Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Something is not right with Peyton Manning so this seems like the perfect spot to fade the Broncos. They don’t have as much to play for and they are in the road.

Check out our Updated NFL Week 16 Odds.



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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.


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