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Handicapping 2015 Superbowl Gambling Trends: ATS Stats, Angles, & NFL Matchups

Super Bowl Trends That Matter

The great game is upon us and even though there is so much that makes this game stand out it does not mean that we should completely abandon handicapping tools that has helped in the past.  Here are some trends that might be relevant to consider when handicapping the big game.

NFL Handicappers Trend Analysis

New England Trends

  • Patriots are 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

This one is worth heeding. This is an accomplished team that looks forward to being challenged.

If you look at how they fared against playoff teams during the regular season you will see that they often dominated.

  • Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 72-33-2 ATS in their last 107 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 12-25 ATS in their last 37 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 playoff games.

This is an interesting one. New England is almost always in the playoffs and often the favourite. They are 1-1 ATS in these playoffs with identical -7 numbers. I think this is a function of a variety of things but not shrinking from the moment.

  • Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.

New England is generally not a grind it out team. They want their players to have solid feet beneath them to cut and make plays.

  • Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in February.
  • Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Superbowl games.

The two trends above are indicative of the Patriots recent performance in the biggest of games. However, I don’  think you can view these as trends given their spacing. Though you could say they have happened with the same QB and coach.

  • Over is 7-1 in Patriots last 8 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 Superbowl games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games in February.

Looking at the two above shows that the Patriots have not been able to get off offensively on the grand stage lately. It makes you wonder if when given that extra time to prepare, their offense, gimmicks and all, can be limited somewhat easily. If you are going to play over the total you are expecting the Pats to do some work.

  • Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 games on grass.
  • Over is 35-16 in Patriots last 51 games following a ATS win.
  • Over is 13-6 in Patriots last 19 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

This might be one to look at more closely. The Pats are not generally an elite defensive team but after a strong showing it looks like the oddmakers may be considering them one. This is important because they gave up next to nothing to Indianapolis.

  • Over is 15-7 in Patriots last 22 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Over is 34-16-1 in Patriots last 51 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Seattle Trends

  • Seahawks are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Seahawks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
  • Seahawks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
  • Seahawks are 19-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Like New England Seattle enjoys being challenged. When they face good team they have been rising to the occasion more often than not. This part talent and part coaching. Pete Carroll knows how to motivate.

  • Seahawks are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS loss.
  • Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
  • Seahawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Seahawks are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
  • Over is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Over is 9-3 in Seahawks last 12 playoff games.

It is interesting given how dominant their defense can be that they have been going over so often. Last week it took OT to eclipse the total but with this group when their defense dominates they also make lots of big plays.

Both playoff games this year have gone over.

  • Under is 11-5 in Seahawks last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.

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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.


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