Week 6 Odds: Green Bay vs Miami
The Miami Dolphins host the Green Bay Packers in a big match-up for both of these teams early in the season. As always, come back to Cappers Picks daily for our latest free NFL picks all season long.
Miami had a bye in week 5, but will the extra time to prepare be enough for them to overcome GB?
NFL Week 6 Picks
Green Bay vs Miami
When: Sunday, October 12th 2014 at 1:00pm ET
Where: Sun Life Stadium
TV: FOX
NFL Week 6 Gambling Line: Packers –3
NFL Week 6 Gambling O/U Line: 48.5 Points
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GB is a small favorite on the road after dominating the Bears and Vikings during the last two weeks.
The Dolphins (2-2) won their last game against the Raiders in London in W4. This is a tough team to read, as you never know what Miami team is going to show up. They either play great or garbage.
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I believe the bookies expect the Dolphins to keep it close. They should be planning on running it a lot, as the Packers rank last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed (163.0 RYPG) so far this season.
Miami ranks 5th in rushing (142.2 RYPG) and they’ve been scoring 24.0 PPG (14th). Ryan Tannehill has put up respectable numbers, as he has limited mistakes, but Miami is only averaging 212.0 PYPG (23rd).
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Those passing numbers are unlikely to improve against the Packers pass defense (208.8 PYPG – 7th). The key for Miami will be to not get down early, as forcing Tannehill to air it out vs. Rodgers isn’t ideal.
Green Bay scores 26.8 PPG (7th), but they actually rank 18th in passing yards (219.6 PYPG) and 25th in rush yards (89.6 RYPG). The Dolphins have the ability to keep this game close by limiting Rodgers.
Miami is only allowing 215.0 PYPG (9th) and they’ll have to do their best to put pressure on Rodgers and make him as uncomfortable as possible. If Rodgers can sit in the pocket this game will be all but over.
Eddie Lacy hasn’t been nearly as impressive as he was in his rookie season. Miami allows 107.2 RYPG (13th) and as long as they finish tackles they’ll be able to keep Lacy from breaking off any big plays.
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Week 6 NFL Gambling Trends
* GB are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 6.
* Under is 9-2-1 in MIA last 12 games in October.
* MIA are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 6.
* MIA are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Nearly 80% of the action is on the Packers to cover ATS, but I actually like Miami at home. Green Bay has looked great the last two weeks, but on paper this team is average at best and MIA will compete.
Free NFL Pick: Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins
The last time these two played was in 2010 and the Dolphins won, but that was a long time ago. I just feel this is a trap game. Miami has had time to prepare for this match-up and should play GB tough.
4* Free Play On Miami Dolphins +3 (-110)
Like I mentioned above, you never know how Miami will play, but getting +3 points on them at home off of a bye is an ideal situation. Make sure you get +3 points just in case there ends up being a push.
Check out our Updated NFL Week 6 Odds.
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