NFL-X San Francisco vs Houston Point Spread
In week 4 NFL preseason action, the Houston Texans host the San Francisco 49ers at NRG Stadium. Cappers Picks will provide free NFL picks all season, so keep coming back for our best bets. The San Francisco 49ers (1-2) covered the spread last week against SD (21-7), but it was no thanks to the starters on offense.
Week 4 Preseason Picks
When: Thursday, Aug 28th 2014 at 8:00pm ET
Where: NRG Stadium
TV: Local
NFL Preseason Line: 49ers –3
NFL Preseason O/U: 39 Points
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The Houston Texans (2-1) won last week over the Broncos (18-17) at Mile High.
I like the 49ers to be Super Bowl contenders, but the preseason has gone terrible. Last week was the first time that SF got in to the endzone and it wasn’t until Colin Kaepernick was out of the game.
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Kaepernick signed the big contract and he’ll be on a short leash with fans heading into the regular season after going 12/22 for 115 passing yards. We’re unlikely to see him play at all this week though.
Blaine Gabbert will likely start and he has gone 18/36 for 126 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT’s. He played better against SD, but has had a poor preseason. Josh Johnson should also see some snaps in the 2H.
The Niners rank dead last in points (8.0 PPG) and passing yards (149.7 PYPG). The run game hasn’t done much better either (89.7 RYPG – 24th). I don’t expect those numbers to improve much this week.
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Houston hasn’t done much better on offense. They’ve averaged 16.7 PPG (26th), 160.7 PYPG (30th) and 102.3 RYPG (18th). Case Keenum is expected to start with Tom Savage getting some snaps also.
Keenum has struggled in the preseason, but Savage (11/14 for 90 Yards & 1 TD) has looked good in limited time on the field. These two QB’s are fighting for the back-up job and both need to play well.
The 49ers have done well at defending the pass (191.7 PYPG – 8th), but they’ve allowed 140.7 RYPG (28th) and 21.3 PPG (19th) during the preseason, which is uncharacteristic for the Niners defense.
Houston will have a strong d-line, but Clowney and Watt won’t play this week. Due to the injuries at RB for the Niners I expect them to pass the football more often, as Houston is allowing 252 PYPG (29th).
Preseason NFL Gambling Trends
- Under is 6-1 in 49ers last 7 Thursday games.
- 49ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
- Under is 8-3 in 49ers last 11 games overall.
- Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
- Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
- Texans are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
Free NFL Pick: 49ers vs. Texans
Bet on the Houston Texans +3 (-110)
Gabbert and Johnson are unlikely to beat up on the Texans secondary, as both have struggled through the air this preseason. I expect them both to make mistakes that’ll result in turnovers.
Houston should have success running the football on the 49ers 2nd and 3rd stringers. Savage will be able to test the 49ers secondary as well with his big arm, but only if he gets enough playing time.
San Francisco has struggled all preseason and I don’t expect that to change. With this being the final game of the preseason for these teams I expect both to play a vanilla scheme and I’ll grab the points.
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