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Free AFC Championship Pick: Colts vs. Patriots Prediction & Over Under Betting Preview

AFC Championship Game: Indianapolis vs New England Prediction

NFL Conference Championship playoff betting action sees the New England Patriots taking on the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, Jan. 18 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. Stay tuned to Cappers Picks as we provide free NFL handicapping tips all season long.

NFL Odds

Who: Indianapolis Colts (13-5) at New England Patriots (13-4)
Date: Sunday, January 18, 2014
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium
City: Foxborough, Massachusetts
NFL O/U Betting Lines: 53.5
NFL Point Spread: New England -6.5
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Andrew Luck has played against the Patriots three times in his career. Each time the Colts have lost by at least 21 points.

The average score in those games: 48-22. In those three meetings, Luck turned the ball over nine times, including four turnovers in last year’s playoff matchup in New England.

Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots are 13-0 in the postseason when they win the turnover battle, and 6-8 when they don’t.

In fact, the turnover bug has been an issue for Luck all season. He threw 16 interceptions and fumbled the football 12 times during the regular season. After firing two interceptions last week, Luck has now turned the ball over eight times in three road playoff games.

That’s hardly a recipe for success when going into Foxborough.


Add it all up and the Colts have been outscored 144-66 in those last three games against the Patriots, including a 42-33 loss in a divisional playoff game last season and a 42-20 home loss earlier this season.

Luck guided the Colts to a win over the heavily favored Denver Broncos a week ago, throwing for 265 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions. He’s thrown for six touchdowns in three games against the Patriots.

In last year’s playoff meeting, the Patriots ran for 234 yards and a playoff franchise-record six rushing touchdowns in a game in which Tom Brady did not throw for a score. 166 of those yards and four scores came from LeGarrette Blount, who led the Patriots in each category.

In their meeting earlier this season, the Patriots accumulated a season-high 246 rushing yards, with 201 yards and four touchdowns coming from rookie Jonas Gray.

Free Colts vs. Patriots Pick:

Points haven’t been difficult to come by when these teams have faced off in the past, and Luck has only gotten better as the season has progressed. The Patriots have clearly had the key to solving the Colts’ defense and the Colts figure to only add to their points total come Sunday.

NFL Betting Trends:

  • The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams in New England, and it is 6-0 in the last six meetings overall.
  • The over is 48-22 in the Patriots’ last 70 games against AFC opponents, and it is 40-19-1 in their last 60 home games.
  • The over is 12-5-2 in the Patriots’ last 19 games against allowing more than 30 points in their previous game, and it is 33-14 in their last 47 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous contest.

The play: Over 53.5

Check out our Updated NFL Playoff Odds.

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