Week Thirteen Gambling – Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings
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Bills at Vikings
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Sunday December 5 – 1:00PM
Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome – Minneapolis, Minnesota
Broadcast: CBS
Buffalo (2-9) +195 vs Minnesota (4-7) -235 (Odds courtesy of BetUS)
Spread Favourite: Minnesota -5.5
Over/Under: 44
(odds courtesy of BetUS – BET NOW Click Here!)
Buffalo
Buffalo may be a better team with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm but they are still not very good. The main difference is that they have gone from an embarrassment to just bad while their opponents might be sliding in the opposite direction. The Bills have lost 4 games by five points or less but when you watch them it seems like opponents are playing down to their competition not the other way around.
At least Fitzpatrick makes it interesting. I can not remember a recent QB switch that has been as effective as this one which is interesting because the Bills still don’t have great skill personnel. Fitzpatrick is making do with guys like Stevie Johnson who seems to make more headlines for his antics than anything else. Its too bad because he is a pretty good player and has eclipsed Lee Evans in the WR pecking order.
The Bills may be just 2-9 SU but they are 6-4-1 ATS including an impressive 4-1 ATS on the road. Yes this is a bad team but it is one that seems to be able to outperform when nobody expects them too, as in taking the Ravens, a Super Bowl contender, right to the wire on the road a few weeks back. Give them credit, they haven’t quit. 
Minnesota
As expected the Vikings gutted out a victory for new coach Leslie Frazier last weekend against Washington. It wasn’t the most impressive game last Sunday but given the situation surrounding the team a win was vital. This team is still out of the playoff race but is back on the road to respectability…if they can follow it up with a win over the Bills.
Levelling the playing field a bit is the injury situation for the Vikes. Unfortunately key playmakers Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin are questionable for Sunday. If they are out that will put a lot of pressure on Brett Favre which may not be a good thing. Last week rookie RB Toby Gerhart was solid in place of Peterson and against Buffalo he should be able to muscle out some yards. Still a strong defensive effort would help secure the victory.
If Minnesota wants to get back on the path they have to win. If Frazier wants to keep this job beyond this season they have to win. Those are a couple of pretty strong motivations and I think they should be enough to push the Vikings over the top provided Favre doesn’t bury them by trying to do too much on his own.
The Pick: Vikes have to be the play this week although I expect Buffalo to put forth a very good effort. Even with a couple of hobbled playmakers they are just too much better on defense at home. Not great value here though.
NFL Gambling Trends
Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
Vikings are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite.
Vikings are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Score Prediction: Minnesota 27 – Buffalo 21
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