NFL Week 4: Play against home favorites
A handicapping angle that has paid consistent dividends for decades validated itself again last week. As discussed prior to Week 3, Play AGAINST home favorites of 10.5 or more points versus division opponents off an upset loss as a favorite.
For more betting trends, check out the Team Stats page at Sportsbook.com.
There were three games that featured this scenario last week and two of them came through. Cleveland easily covered the 12.5-point spread at Baltimore, falling 24-17 after having led the game outright 17-14 in the fourth quarter. Likewise, Buffalo beat the 14-point spread at New England in a 38-30 loss. The Bills were within one score of the Patriots and had possession of the ball late in the game before an INT ended their upset hopes.
In the third such contest, Detroit just missed covering the 13 points it was getting at Minnesota, losing 24-10 in a game that was 14-10 at the half.
After last week’s 2-1 record using this angle, this trend is now 44-15 since 1983. (74.6%, +27.5 units. Rating = 3*).
There are two such opportunities this week. Detroit gets another shot as a heavy 15-point underdog at Green Bay, who lost as a road favorite on Monday night in Chicago. Meanwhile, Carolina is getting 13.5 points from the defending Super Bowl champions in the Superdome. New Orleans is coming off an agonizing overtime loss to Atlanta.
