2013 NFL Picks / Prop Bets
Rule changes by the NFL’s competition committee have helped quarterbacks to thrive over the last two seasons. We are truly in the era of the quarterback, with pinball numbers posted by a handful of passers each year.
Three different quarterbacks have eclipsed the 5,000-yard mark over the last two seasons, a feat accomplished only twice in the first 91 years the league was in existence, and any quarterback looking to lead the league in passing yardage this year will surely have to surpass that number.
Here’s a look at five quarterbacks that may offer some value this season in the race to be the league’s top passer.
Odds courtesy of BetOnline.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (+650)
Stafford is just a year removed from a 5,038 yard season, and has led the NFL in pass attempts in each of the last two seasons, so we know the volume will be there. Last season Stafford helped Calvin Johnson to an NFL record 1,964 receiving yards, but the team’s supporting cast wasn’t up to snuff. This year, Stafford’s secondary receivers get a major upgrade as Nate Burleson returns from injury, Ryan Broyles appears poised for a breakout, and Reggie Bush provides Stafford with a dangerous option out of the backfield.
Detroit’s schedule sets up favorably as the team gets four of their outdoor games out of the way in the first six weeks of the season when weather shouldn’t be an issue, then they’ll play five of their final six games indoors.
Eli Manning, New York Giants (+1200)
Forgotten in the bedlam atop the 2011 passing charts was the 4,933-yard season put together by Eli Manning. Few quarterbacks have enjoyed the consistency that Manning has, as he’s set to enter his 10th season with Kevin Gilbride at the controls.
With Jerry Reese and the other big wigs in the front office finally getting their acts together and signing Victor Cruz to a new contract prior to the start of training camp, Manning will have a full arsenal of talented receivers to throw the ball to, with Brandon Myers and Rueben Randle expected to see plenty of pigskin despite playing secondary roles.
Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (+1500)
The Dallas offense had a lot more life to it after the team all but abandoned the run and rested their hopes on the shoulders of Tony Romo. Over the final 10 games of the 2012 season, Romo threw for 3,267 yards. Multiply that out over 16 games and you get 5,227. DeMarco Murray is as brittle as ever, so the Cowboys could find themselves turning their hopes over to Romo once again this year. Bill Callahan oversaw Rich Gannon’s MVP season in 2002 so don’t be too concerned about him calling the plays. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams (+2500)
There hasn’t been a whole lot to like about Bradford’s performance since being selected No. 1 overall out of Oklahoma, but a change to the offensive philosophy in St. Louis could lead to a return of The Greatest Show on Turf.
The Ram offense has been centered around Steven Jackson the entire time Sam Bradford has been in town, but with the bruising back moving on to Atlanta, Bradford has the reins of the offense all to himself. A change in strategy will see the team play a spread offense, similar to the one that led to Bradford’s success as a Sooner. Bradford will also be working with the best group of pass-catchers he’s had at his disposal since entering the NFL, with Tavon Austin and Jared Cook poised to play prominent roles and Chris Givens always a threat to hit a home run.
Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (+3000)
Rivers is just two years removed from leading the league in passing. Things couldn’t have gone much worse than they did for Rivers in 2012, but with a new coaching staff and a healthy receiving corps, Rivers should bounce back nicely. A healthy Vincent Brown should fill the void left by Vincent Jackson as the team hoped he would a year ago, while Danny Woodhead provides Rivers the threat out of the backfield he’s lacked since Darren Sproles left town.
NFL regular season passing leader odds:
Drew Brees +325
Peyton Manning +500
Aaron Rodgers +650
Matthew Stafford +650
Tom Brady +800
Matt Ryan +800
Eli Manning +1200
Joe Flacco +1500
Andrew Luck +1500
Tony Romo +1500
Matt Schaub +1500
Cam Newton +1600
Robert Griffin III +1800
Russell Wilson +1900
Ben Roethlisberger +2000
Sam Bradford +2500
Jay Cutler +2500
Andy Dalton +2500
Colin Kaepernick +2500
Josh Freeman +3000
Philip Rivers +3000
Carson Palmer +3500
Alex Smith +7500
Michael Vick +7500
Field +1000
