NFL Betting – 2011 MVP Futures
In the happy, hypothetical world where the NFL lockout is no more, training camps are about to start. The Hall-of-Fame game is a month away.
LOOKING FOR NFL FOOTBALL PICKS FOR THE 2011 SEASON? EARLY BIRD PACKAGES ON SALE SOON —–>
That means it’s a good time to examine MVP futures, right?
Here are the top 10 favorites – plus a pick to win the 2011/2012 NFL MVP.
1. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots (+500)
As amazing as Tom Brady’s 50-touchdown 2007 campaign was, he may have been even better in 2010. His 36 to 4 touchdown-to-interception ratio was better than his 50:8 mark of 2007. Only problem for bettors is that he’s valued based on those phenomenal numbers and may be hard-pressed to repeat them at age 34. A lot depends on whether or not the Pats go after a free-agent wideout like Chad Johnson or Plaxico Burress. 
2. Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts (+500)
Dare I say Peyton Manning is a bust pick here? His O-line protection appears to be on the decline, his offseason neck surgery makes him a question mark and his 17 interceptions last season were his most since 2002. He and the Colts may finally be in decline.
3. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (+500)
The only thing standing between Aaron Rodgers and his first MVP award is his noggin. His accuracy and footwork combine to remind me of Steve Young. The reigning Super Bowl champ can do it all – but he still gets hit too much and has a concussion history. One big shot could end his season. Rodgers is a bit risky.
4. The Field (+500)
Why include the field? Because I think the oddsmakers are forgetting a few key guys. The one that jumps to mind for me is Kansas City Chiefs tailback Jamaal Charles. Given his multi-faceted game as a runner and receiver and his emerging offense, I like his chances to win better than Chris Johnson’s.
5. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints (+650)
Drew Brees carries sentimental value since the league MVP is just about the only major award to elude him. But his knee is a concern, as are his career-worst 22 interceptions of a year ago. Brees should be an elite signalcaller for a few more seasons but his window to be the top dog might be closing.
6. Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (+800)
Clearly, Vick is the ultimate boom/bust pick on this list. He was arguably just as good as Brady last season and perhaps more dominant. In 12 games, he threw 21 touchdown passes and ran for nine more. But no quarterback puts himself in harm’s way like Vick does. He’s a long shot to play a full schedule and is thus a dangerous pick. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
7. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans (+1000)
Chris Johnson? CJ2K has been great so far in his career but I doubt his supporting cast will be good enough to help him win an MVP this season. Johnson also may hold out for a new contract. Avoid him.
8. Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers (+1200)
Rivers may be my favorite sleeper. He’s posted a passer rating above 100 and a completion percentage above 65 for three straight seasons. If the rest of the Chargers can step up and help him win some games, I like him as much as anyone on this list. Some people believe Rivers could use a new No. 1 target (Steve Smith?) but Rivers proved last season that he can dominate no matter who his receivers are.
9. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons (+1200)
Matty Ice is a popular pick since the Falcons are Super Bowl contenders and they drafted Julio Jones but Atlanta runs too much. Ryan won’t put up the prolific numbers to match the other MVP hopefuls.
10. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (+1500)
Nothing to see here. MoJo is a great player but he’s playing on a bum knee and for a mediocre team. No chance.
THE PICK
To me, the choice comes down to Rodgers and Rivers. On one hand, Rivers is a better bet to play a full season. On the other, Rodgers’ team should be better. I’ll cross my fingers that Rodgers stays healthy since the Packer O-line is improving.
NFL MVP prediction: Aaron Rodgers +500
