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Kentucky vs Alabama Preview/Pick

NCAA Football Betting – Kentucky Wildcats at Alabama Crimson Tide

Saturday, October 4

Two undefeated SEC squads square off on Saturday as the Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS), which is second in the nation in one poll, plays host to the Kentucky Wildcats (4-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) in NCAA college football action that is set to get underway at 3:30 PM ET at Bryant-Denny Stadium (natural turf) in Tuscaloosa, AL.

BetUS NCAAF Odds: ALABAMA -16.5

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* KY has won its last five games SU
* KY has played six of its last eight games UNDER the total
* KY has covered six of its last eight road games
* KY has won four of its last six games SU
* KY has lost 18 of its last 24 road games SU
* KY has played five of its last seven road games UNDER the total
* ALA has covered five of its last six games
* ALA has won its last six games SU
* ALA has played four of its last six games OVER the total
* ALA is 3-5-1 ATS in its last nine home games
* ALA has won 18 of its last 25 home games SU
* ALA has played four of its last six home games OVER the total

Hey, have you forgotten that the University of Kentucky is undefeated too? The Wildcats, who ended their 2007 season with a win over Florida State in their bowl game, have yet to taste defeat, beating three of their four opponents handily and having a bit of a close call against Middle Tennessee. UK has averaged 31.5 points a game and given up just 5.5 points. Of course, the resume doesn’t quite compare to that of the Crimson Tide, you based on accomplishment might actually be able to claim the #1 national ranking, as they have rather decisively beaten both Clemson and Georgia, consensus top ten foes in the pre-season polls.

So you can’t disparage anything Nick Saban has done with his club this season. There’s a loaded backfield with Glen Coffee, Mark Ingram and Roy Upchurch; quarterback John Parker Wilson has thrown six TDs with only one interception, and there is balance in the receiving corps, although the standout is prize freshman Julio Jones, who caught 16 passes with four touchdowns. On defense, it goes without saying that the Tide is getting the job done. They are third nationally against the rush, allowing just 54 yards a game, and that is after having faced the likes of Knowshon Moreno and Clemson’s duo of C.J. Spiller and James Davis. Alabama has permitted just one rushing touchdown in the last 24 quarters of football.

So the questions become these:

Can Kentucky throw the ball?
Will Alabama have a big enough letdown after last week’s win over Georgia?

The answer to the second question is unknown. The answer to the first is “probably not.” Mike Hartline has thrown only one interception in 123 passes this year. But he’s producing only about five yards an attempt, so the big plays to loosen up the Alabama defense aren’t going to come.

We don’t want to bank on the letdown, so we’ll lay the points with Alabama, the 16.5-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA college football betting odds.

Our PLAY: ALABAMA -16.5 **

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