NCAA Football Week 4 Picks – TCU vs. Clemson
TCU Horned Frogs (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) at Clemson Tigers (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS)
Saturday, September 26 – 3:30 PM ET
BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: CLEMSON -2.5
Here are some of the college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
TCU has won nine of its last ten games SU
TCU has covered two of its last six games
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TCU has won four of its last five road games SU
TCU has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
CLEM has covered six of its last seven games
CLEM has won five of its last seven games SU 
CLEM has won and covered four of its last five home games
CLEM has played four of its last six home games UNDER the total
This is TCU’s third game of the year, and it is its second trip east to meet up with an ACC school. In the opener, which took place one week after most teams, the Horned Frogs throttled the spread offense of Virginia and came away with a 30-14 win, limiting the Cavaliers to 177 total yards.
These TCU defenders are fast and smart and they know how to get to the ball. Most notably, they know how to get to the ball when the quarterback is holding it. They’ve got eleven sacks so far, and with an average of 5.5 per game, that leads the entire nation. Jerry Hughes is the All-America candidate on that front line; he’s got three sacks so far.
It must be said that Clemson had quite a bit of trouble with Georgia Tech’s option attack a couple of weeks ago, allowing 301 yards in a 30-27 defeat. However, in that game they mounted a massive comeback, coming all the way back from a 24-0 deficit to go ahead 27-24 before the Yellow Jackets got a field goal to tie and a field goal with 57 second left to win it.
Georgia Tech doesn’t pass the ball that much, so when we tell you Clemson is second in the nation in pass efficiency defense, perhaps that’s a little deceiving. Still, the Tigers have allowed opponents to complete only 37.5% of passes, and have logged eight interceptions already. Last week this defense posted one of the best performances in recent seasons, holding ACC foe Boston College to just 54 TOTAL yards, four first downs and five completions on the day.
We’re not going to tell you that we’re all that impressed with freshman quarterback Kyle Parker, who is less than 50% accurate and has thrown four interceptions already. That creates a problem because Clemson has the two best home run people on the field in running back CJ Spiller and wide receiver Jacoby Ford (both ticketed for the NFL) and Parker has to figure out a way to get the ball in their hands.
Without question, what worries us, aside from the athleticism of TCU’s defense and the fact that the Frogs have covered 13 of their last 18 games, is the fact that there looks to be an edge at the quarterback position for TCU in the steadier Andrew Dalton. It’s a big challenge for TCU to be traveling yet again to the east, and against a team that is Top 25-caliber, but if the pass rush is as good as advertised, the freshman Parker will have someone in his face all day.
This problem will be compounded if left tackle Chris Hairston, who has a left knee injury, can not play in the game. He has not practiced in the first couple of days of the week and the preliminary indication was that he would be out. Spiller, who has issued assurances that Hairston will play, and Ford have been somewhat hampered because the trigger man lacks experience and savvy. We’ll count on TCU here plus the points as the 2.5-point dog in the BetUS NCAA betting odds.
OUR PLAY: TCU +2.5 **
One reply on “Horned Frogs vs. Tigers Preview/Pick”
This is a great chance for TCU to step in a weight class and make another statement for the mid majors.
Clemson after a disappointing loss to Georgia Tech may just not be that good. I’m going with the Horned Frogs as well.