College Football Picks – South Florida Bulls vs. Florida State Seminoles
South Florida Bulls (3-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) at Florida State Seminoles (2-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Saturday, September 26 – Noon ET
BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: FLORIDA STATE -14.5, Total 50.5
Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
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USF has won five of its last six games SU
USF has covered two of its last seven road games 
USF has won six of its last nine road games SU
USF has played five of its last six road games UNDER the total
FSU has won nine of its last 13 games SU
FSU has won 12 of its last 17 home games SU
South Florida has gotten no tests thus far, rolling over Wofford, Western Kentucky and Charleston Southern. It was in the last game that it was demonstrated why NFL teams sometimes don’t leave their starters in long during exhibitions. In the process of running up the score on an FCS team, the Bulls lost their starting quarterback and spiritual leader, Matt Grothe, for the rest of the season with a knee injury.
Grothe had also suffered a shoulder injury on the series before he was put out of the game, and he has since remarked that the shoulder injury alone would have probably kept him out of this game with FSU.
So that begs the question again, considering that his team was up 21-0 in what turned out to be a 59-0 final – what in the world was he doing in the game?
During his entire tenure at South Florida, Grothe has been the glue that has really kept this team together. He has been the player who transcended his statistics – a poor man’s Tim Tebow if you will, pacing the team in rushing and passing during that time (2206 rush yards, to be precise). No, he wasn’t a pro prospect, but he was the kind of blood-and-guts leader teammates go into a foxhole with. By the way, the answer to the above question is that he just didn’t tell anybody about the injury until after the game – and his season – was over.
The Bulls really don’t have a chance to win this game without Grothe, for a couple of reasons. One is that they don’t have a good enough stand-alone rushing game to make a difference, and another is that no quarterback, with apologies to redshirt freshman BJ Daniels (a Tallahassee native who FSU didn’t recruit), who has to take the reins now – is going to bring the set of intangibles into the game that allowed Grothe to overcome mediocre passing stats and get USF winning.
What Florida State has to worry about is possible overconfidence because of the Grothe injury, and also a letdown after going to Provo and feasting on BYU 54-28). The Seminole defense is moving a lot faster than Charleston Southern did, and they tortured Max Hall with three interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown.
FSU found its running game (313 yards!) and has a confident, cool quarterback in Christian Ponder. Sure, we respect USF defensive end George Selvie. But they’re missing too much here. The Bulls will have to show us first. We’ll take Florida State, a team that should continue to get better, and the 14.5-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA football betting odds.
OUR PLAY: FLORIDA STATE -14.5 ***
