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Buffalo Bulls vs. Ball State Cardinals @ Detroit

The Mid-American Conference (MAC) title and a berth in the Motor City Bowl is on the line on Friday night when the undefeated Ball State Cardinals (12-0 SU, 9-2 ATS) tackle the Buffalo Bulls (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) in NCAA college football sports betting action that is set tot kick off at 8 PM ET at Ford Field (artificial turf) in Detroit.

BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: BALL STATE -14.5, Total 60.5

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* BUFF has won five of its last six games SU
* BUFF has covered four of its last six games
* BUFF has played six of its last seven games OVER the total
* BSU has covered nine of its last 11 games
* BSU has played five of its last seven games UNDER the total

Also…

* BSU has won all four meetings SU
* BSU has covered the last three meetings

Buffalo has a very impressive and balanced attack. Drew Willy would appear one of the smartest quarterbacks in the country, throwing only five interceptions in 397 attempts, and with 64.5% accuracy; James Starks ranks sixth among the nation’s rushers, with 1226 yards on 5.1 yards a carry. And Willy has an outstanding target in Naaman Roosevelt, who’s had four straight 100-yard games and 1196 on the season. Turner Gill, the former Nebraska quarterback, has really done a great job of bringing this program out of the wilderness.

But one can hardly help but notice that when they have moved up in class, the Bulls have come up short. Not humiliatingly short, mind you, but short nonetheless, losing a 27-16 decision to Pittsburgh, not to mention a three-TD defeat to Missouri. That goes for performance within the conference as well, as UB has lost close ones to Central Michigan and Western Michigan.

Interestingly, Ball State seems to have Buffalo’s offensive weapons trumped. After all, Nate Davis is explosive, passing for 3095 yards on 67% completions, with 25 TD’s and six interceptions. MiQuale Lewis has gathered 1570 yards (4th nationally) on 5.7 yards per carry. And Davis really knows how to spread the ball around, with four receivers gaining at least 400 yards.

Davis is a fearless leader who should be in an NFL uniform on Sundays. To be able to slow down the Ball State offense, you have to put some pressure on him. But Buffalo has not made the kind of strides on defense that it has on offense. The Bulls have scored only eleven quarterback sacks, and there are only four teams in the country who protect their passer any better than Ball State does.

The biggest difference here may be in defense, in fact. Ball State has actually done a pretty decent job keeping teams out of the end zone, ranking tenth in scoring defense (16.7 ppg allowed) and holding every team to 24 points or less. Buffalo allows 4.7 yards a rush attempt and 400 yards a game. This one doesn’t have to really get out of hand to LOOK like it’s gotten out of hand, if you know what I mean.

With perfect weather conditions (the game is indoors), Davis ought to be able to negotiate things just fine. In a small recommendation, we’ll lay the points with undefeated Ball State, the 14.5-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA college football sports betting odds.

Our PLAY: BALL STATE -14.5 *

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