Week 14: Utah St. vs. Boise St. Preview & Pick

Week 14: Utah State Aggies vs. Boise State Broncos Preview Free College Football Pick

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Week 14: Utah State at Boise State Preview & Pick

Boise State’s national championship dreams are over. Now, betting fans are trying to figure out how the Broncos will react. They have one more regular season game left—Saturday against the lowly Utah State Aggies.

GO INSIDE THIS MATCHUP WITH OUR ATS STATS —>
Aggies vs. Broncos
Date: Saturday, December 4, 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Bronco Stadium, Boise, Idaho
Broadcast: ESPN3.com
Aggies vs. Broncos lines from Bodog.com
Aggies: +39.5
Broncos: -39.5
Total: N/A
Bet Now @ Bodog.com

Boise State (10-1, 8-3 ATS) suffered a devastating 34-31 loss at Nevada last week. It was the Broncos’ first loss of the season and ended a three-game winning streak against the spread. It also knocked Boise State out of national championship and Rose Bowl contention.

The offense melted down against the Wolf Pack. After scoring on its first four possessions—all in the first half—Boise State failed to get on the board again until six minutes remained in the game. Dropped passes plagued the Broncos, which limited an already impressive day from Kellen Moore (20-31, 348 yards, two touchdowns, zero picks). Perhaps most importantly, Kyle Brotzman missed two field goals; one at the end of regulation to win, and another in overtime.

The “D” was obliterated. It entered the game ranked first against the run and second in scoring, but Nevada rolled up 269 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Boise State was murdered on third down, as the Wolf Pack converted nine of its 17 third-down attempts.

Utah State (4-7, 4-6 ATS) had its two-game winning streak snapped after losing 28-6 to Idaho last week. The Aggies couldn’t cover as 2.5-point favorites; they’re 1-2 ATS in their past three games.

The Aggies are in big trouble; they typically rely on a heavy dose of the run to score, but they don’t have the talent Nevada does to cut through the Broncos. Derrvin Speight is the bell cow for Utah State; last week, he carried 17 times for 80 yards, and he’s averaging over 100 per game in his last three outings. The passing game is a nightmare. The Aggies are averaging less than 200 pass yards per out, and last week Diondre Borel was in over his head against Idaho (14-35, 103 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions).

The defense has been exposed against both pass and run, and Utah State is allowing a whopping 32 points per game. If there’s a bright spot, it’s linebacker Bobby Wagner. The junior had 16 tackles last week. He can’t stop Boise State by himself, though.

The Broncos have won nine straight against Idaho—and covered every time. Predicting Saturday’s outcome is difficult, though. Will Boise State show up determined to avenge last week’s loss? Or, with their dream season obliterated, will everything collapse? Either way, the Broncos should beat Utah State big.

This is the first time in over three years Boise State will hit the field immediately following a loss. I’m leaning toward them going through the motions and not being able to top the Aggies by 40.

Utah State at Boise State pick: Utah State +39.5

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