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Week 13: LSU vs. Arkansas Preview & Pick

Week 13: LSU Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks Preview Free College Football Pick

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Week 13: LSU at Arkansas Preview & Pick

As most teams close out their final week of the regular season, the stakes are reaching a season-high on college football odds. No game is bigger than No. 5 LSU at No. 12 Arkansas, as both are desperate for a BCS bowl bid.

GO INSIDE THIS MATCHUP WITH OUR ATS STATS —>
Date: Saturday, November 27, 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Donald W. Reynolds Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Broadcast: CBS
Tigers vs. Razorbacks lines from Sportsbook.com
LSU: +3.5
Razorbacks: -3.5
Total: 54.5
Bet Now @ Bodog.com

Arkansas (9-2, 8-2 ATS) has cranked up the volume since losing to Auburn at mid-season. Since then, the Razorbacks have won its past five games both straight up and against the spread, including a 38-31 win over Mississippi State last week.

The defense has been the team’s Achilles’ heel—it allowed 65 points to Auburn, for example—but it has played much better as of late, especially in crunch time. Arkansas has surrendered just 24 second-half points over the last four games. Mississippi State did put up 10 second-half points against the Razorbacks last week, but Arkansas pitched a shutout in double overtime.

On the other side of the ball, Arkansas fields one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Quarterback Ryan Mallet and running back Knile Davis are both big-time playmakers, which has helped the Razorbacks rack up 23 touchdown drives of two minutes or less. This team can burn you in a hurry.

LSU (10-1, 5-5 ATS) hasn’t been nearly as effective against the spread lately, going just 2-2 in its past four games. The Tigers failed to cover as a 14.5-point favorite in last week’s wild 43-36 win over Mississippi.

The offense has been terrible this season, but it showed signs of life against Mississippi. LSU racked up a season-high 470 yards, while Jordan Jefferson threw for a career-high 254 yards. That’s pretty impressive considering the team is only averaging 151 pass yards per game this season, though a sudden turnaround is unlikely—the Mississippi game was probably an aberration.

But the Tigers can play some serious “D”—until last week, that is. LSU owns one of the best defenses in the country, or did until the meltdown against Mississippi. Most of the damage came on the ground, as Ole Miss rushed for 236 yards. At least LSU stood tall against the pass (184 yards allowed), which will be crucial with Mallet coming to town.

This series has been extremely close, with LSU and Arkansas splitting their past 10 games against the spread (LSU is 6-4 straight up in that span). The Tigers won last year’s game, but the Razorbacks have covered the past three against the spread.

With LSU’s defense getting exposed last week, Arkansas has the opening it needs. The Razorbacks have enough balance to put some points up against the vaunted Tigers defense, and LSU doesn’t have a hope of keeping up.

LSU at Arkansas pick: Arkansas -3.5

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About Ian Van Den Hurk

Ian Van Den Hurk has covered amateur and pro sports for years, including a successful run handicapping anything from football to mixed martial arts. Looking for more sports betting tips and expert sports handicapping articles from Ian V? We've got your back...


Comments

Comments

  1. HuskersBusker41 says:

    Ooooh a chink in LSU’s defensive armor last week may have people forgetting about how stout they’ve been the entire season. But, if anyone can expose the stupidly athletic Tigers, it’s Mallett and the crew around him.

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