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Week 13: Boise St. vs. Nevada Preview & Pick

Week 13: Boise St. Broncos vs Nevada Wolf Pack Preview Free College Football Pick

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Broncos vs. Wolf Pack

Date: Friday, November 26, 10:15 p.m. ET
Venue: Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nevada
Broadcast: ESPN
Boise State vs. Nevada lines from Bodog.com
Broncos: -14.5
Wolf Pack: +14.5
Total: N/A
Bet Now @ Bodog.com

Week 13: Boise State at Nevada Preview & Pick

With a win, Boise State can lock up the WAC title—and a date with a BCS bowl game. Nevada is riding a brilliant offense, though, and is keen on spoiling the Broncos’ championship hopes.

Boise State (10-0, 8-2 ATS) has ripped off three straight wins against the spread, including a 51-0 romp over Fresno State last week. The “D” was brilliant. The Bulldogs managed just six completions, while giving up three turnovers and getting sacked four times. The Broncos also held the Bulldogs to just 49 net yards on the ground. Boise State is surrendering just 11 points per game this season and has been dominant against the run, yielding an average of just 72 yards per game.

The Broncos are cranking out nearly 50 points per game this season, though they got off to a sluggish start against Fresno State. Boise State managed just three points in the first quarter thanks to two early turnovers. Kellen Moore picked it up in the second half, and the quarterback finished with 333 yards and four touchdowns. The rushing attack was oddly out of sync; it managed just 125 yards on 40 carries, while the team typically racks up about 200 yards a game.

Nevada (10-1, 5-5 ATS) is riding a four-game winning streak, though the Wolf Pack are just 2-2 ATS in that span. They cruised in last week’s 52-6 win over New Mexico State, however, covering the 37.5-point spread.

The Wolf Pack is fourth in the country at 44.1 per game. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has been sensational, and last week’s performance against the Aggies was a perfect example of what he can do. Kaepernick threw for 251 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding another 35 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Nevada’s rushing attack is nearly unstoppable, averaging over 300 yards per game. Vai Taua is the primary ball carrier; he had 22 carries for 111 yards and two touchdowns against New Mexico State, while Lampford Mark added 95 yards and a score.

The defense is more than a few notches below the offense. Nevada is allowing over 21 points per game. It played well against New Mexico State, forcing three turnovers and six sacks while holding the Aggies without a touchdown, but it also allowed 309 yards—not good enough, especially with Boise State on deck. The Wolf Pack has been scorched through the air, allowing an average of 250 yards per game.

Boise State looked a little sluggish last week—and still won 51-0. The Broncos were probably looking ahead to Nevada, whom they’ve beat 10 straight times. Over the last few years the games have been tight, though, with the Wolf Pack covering two of three. Nevada’s offense is so balanced and dynamic, it should be able to pierce the tough Broncos “D.” Nevada won’t quite be able to keep up with Kellen Moore and Co., but it will keep it close enough to cover.

Boise State at Nevada pick: Nevada +14.5



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About Ian Van Den Hurk

Ian Van Den Hurk has covered amateur and pro sports for years, including a successful run handicapping anything from football to mixed martial arts. Looking for more sports betting tips and expert sports handicapping articles from Ian V? We've got your back...