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Week 12: New Mexico St. vs. Nevada Preview & Pick

Week 12: New Mexico State Aggies vs Nevada Wolf Pack Preview Free College Football Pick

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After sneaking away from Fresno State with a victory, Nevada is looking to reaffirm its place in the Top-25. The Wolf Pack faces a New Mexico State squad that has struggled to stop the run, Nevada should have no problems running away with this one.

Aggies at Wolf Pack

GO INSIDE THIS MATCHUP WITH OUR ATS STATS —>
Date: Saturday, November 20, 4:05 p.m. ET
Venue: McKay Stadium, Reno, Nevada
Broadcast: N/A
Aggies vs. Wolf Pack lines from Bodog.com
Aggies: +37.5
Wolf Pack: -37.5
Total: N/A
Bet Now @ Bodog.com

No. 19 Nevada (9-1, 4-5 ATS) is coming off a scare at Fresno State, settling for a 35-34 win and failing to cover as an 8-point favorite. It continued a terrible run against the spread for the Wolf Pack; they’re 1-5 ATS in their past six games.

The run defense was absolutely obliterated by Fresno State running back Robbie Rouse. The sophomore racked up 217 yards and two scores, not to mention a healthy 8.3 yards per carry average. Nevada hasn’t been great against the run this year, but it has to be better than that. The Wolf Pack has been even softer against the pass, and it let Ryan Colburn enjoy a rock-solid afternoon against them (16-26, 194 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions).

As usual, Colin Kaepernick and the explosive offense showed up for work. Nevada ranks fourth in the country in scoring at 43.3 points per game, and it was typically dominant against the Bulldogs.

Kaepernick threw for 171 yards while adding another 153 yards and two touchdowns on the ground; he’s about to become the first player in NCAA history with three seasons of 2000 passing yards and 1000 rushing yards. Nevada also got 89 yards and three scores from Vai Taua. One name worth keeping an eye on is Malcolm Shepherd. The emerging receiver has caught just 20 passes for 262 this year, but 15 catches for 171 yards have come in the past three games.

New Mexico State (2-8, 4-6 ATS) was blown out 41-20 by Louisiana Tech. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak against the spread. The offense has been devastated by injuries over the past few weeks—and it wasn’t very good to begin with.

Running backs Kenny Turner and Seth Smith both went down with injuries and, if that wasn’t enough, quarterback Matt Christian was also bitten by the injury bug. Robert Clay did a nice job running the ball, racking up 108 yards on 22 carries. True freshman Andrew Manley took the reigns under center; he played pretty well in the first half, but finished 20-40 for 216 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. The Aggies are averaging just 165 passing yards per game this season, so Manley exceeded expectations.

The “D” has been crushed, and New Mexico State’s opponents have elected to both run and pass with reckless abandon; the Aggies rank 99th in rush defense and 93rd in pass defense. Louisiana Tech creamed them on the ground, racking up 242 yards and four touchdowns.

Nevada is going to crush the Aggies—its running game is simply too much. That said, 37.5 points is a huge number, one the Wolf Pack is unlikely to cover. New Mexico State will run the football even if it’s losing, taking valuable possessions away from Kaepernick and the offense.

New Mexico State at Nevada pick: Aggies +37.5

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About Ian Van Den Hurk

Ian Van Den Hurk has covered amateur and pro sports for years, including a successful run handicapping anything from football to mixed martial arts. Looking for more sports betting tips and expert sports handicapping articles from Ian V? We've got your back...


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