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AllState Sugar Bowl – Louisville vs. Florida Gambling Prediction & Bowl Preview

Cardinals vs Gators College Football Spread/Handicapping

Many are expecting the Gators to stomp (and chomp) on Louisville but lets remember that as good as they are on defense they are offensively challenged.  Louisville is solid all around and I think this game can be a pleasant surprise.

#21 Louisville Cardinals (10-2) vs #3 Florida Gators (11-1)
Wednesday January 2
Mercedes Superdome – New Orleans, LA
8:30PM
Moneyline:  Florida -525, Louisville +450 at SportsBettingOnline.ag
Spread:  Florida -13.5
O/U:  45.5

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Louisville

The Cardinals had visions of a marvelous season but struggled down the stretch.  

After winning their first 9 games they lost two in a row before beating Rutgers in the defacto Big East title game.  I do think this is a pretty good Louisville team but other than wins against Rutgers and Cincinnati their best victory is against North Carolina, not exactly a scary resume…The biggest advantage the Cardinals has is at the most important position on the field.  

QB Teddy Bridgewater, a Florida kid, had a brilliant sophomore season.   

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Don’t let his efficiency numbers trick you into believing he is not a fantastic athlete though, a quality he will need as he evades a harassing Florida defense.  

Their attack is balanced: two 700 yard rushers and 5 receivers with 30 or more catches…All season long I have been fading the Gators because of their offense.  

In this case that means backing Louisville which at +13.5 looks like a very good bet to me.  Why not buy an extra half point for peace of mind though.

Florida

Florida has backed their way into the BCS this season.  They finished second in their division to Georgia who fell behind them in the BCS standings after nearly beating Alabama.  

Thank goodness this screwy system is almost behind us.  Florida is good though.  Their offense teases but their defense is third in the nation in points allowed.  They have also beaten 4 teams that at times were ranked in the Top 10… [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Those wins are amazing because their offense has been so pedestrian.  

They are ranked 103 in the nation in yards, a stunning decline for a team remembered for the Fun and Gun and Tim Tebow.  The lone bright spot on offense has been running back Mike Gillislee who has thrived as a senior eclipsing his career rushing totals in just one season as the starter…

The Gators lack of offensive punch has stymied bettors this season.  

5 times they have been favourites 17.5 points or more and they are just 1-4 ATS in those games despite winning all of them outright.  

I worry that another chalky performance is in the Cards at the Sugar Bowl.

Spread Pick:  Louisville +13.5
O/U Pick:  Over
Score Prediction:  Florida 27 – Louisville 24

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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.


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