Alamo Bowl Betting Odds – Michigan State vs. Texas Tech
Michigan State Spartans (6-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS)
Saturday, January 2: 9:00 p.m.
Alamo Bowl Betting Odds: Texas Tech -8, Total Points 60 ½
Here are some college bowl betting trends which may impact this game:
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Michigan State: 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
Michigan State: The total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 games
Texas Tech: 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games
Texas Tech: The total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 games
One of the big keys whenever betting bowl games is trying to figure out the motivation of certain teams playing. That will be the case in the Alamo Bowl, where Texas Tech, coming off a disappointing season and without their suspended coach, will be playing a depleted Michigan State squad.
Starting with Tech, they come into this game having won six of their last eight games overall, after finishing 11-2 last season. But as well as they’ve been playing all year, how will they respond to the news from this past Sunday, when it was announced that coach Mike Leach will be suspended for this game. 
They Red Raiders have started three quarterbacks at various times this year, but should have regular starter Taylor Potts healthy for this one. Potts missed a few games early in the year, but finished out 2009 strong, throwing for 3,068 yards and 20 touchdowns. At times however, he became turnover prone, as he tossed 12 picks as well. Juniors Alexander Torres and Detron Lewis are Potts’ favorite targets, as each caught at least 55 balls for at least 700 yards this year.
On the other side, it’s tough to give a strong prediction on Michigan State, as they come into this game with eight starters suspended. Included are the team’s second and third leading receivers B.J. Cunningham and Mark Dell, as well as a few defensive starters. That will put even more pressure on quarterback Kirk Cousins who had a good but not great sophomore campaign, throwing for 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions. His top wide receiver is Blair White. However, Michigan State’s biggest problem all year was their inability to replace last year’s workhorse running back Jovan Ringer, as they finished 79th in college football in rushing offense.
As for these two defenses, as crazy as it sounds, the advantage might actually go to Texas Tech. A team which is known for its high-scoring, was actually very stellar defensively this year, and didn’t allow more than 17 points in their last three games. Michigan State’s strength on defense is against the run, something that will likely be of little factor against the Red Raiders, who rarely run the ball.
The truth about this game is that we really have no idea what Michigan State will look like when they show up in San Antonio. And even though they might be playing with extra motivation for their teammates who couldn’t make it, I’m still going to give the upper-hand to Texas Tech.
To see the disparity of the two teams, just look at the stats. Texas Tech is the No. 2 passing offense in college football, and totals close to 400 yards a game through the air. Michigan State’s pass defense? 103rd in college football. This one could get ugly.
Eight points is a lot of points to be giving during bowl season, especially when Leach won’t be on the sidelines with his team. But even in this rare case it seems justified. Take Texas Tech in this year’s Alamo Bowl betting odds.
OUR Pick: Texas Tech -8
