Week 5 Free NCAAF Parlay Picks
The two games that I’m using on my parlay this week are Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky and Illinois vs. Nebraska. As always, be sure to keep coming back to Cappers Picks for our latest NCAAF free picks.
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A lot of teams are starting their conference schedule this weekend and I expect some underdogs to come through at the betting window. I’m going with Vanderbilt +17 and Illinois +20 to cover ATS.
Game #1 – Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Kentucky Wildcats
NCAA Football Point Spread: Kentucky –17
NCAA Football Over/Under: 51 Points
Vanderbilt 1-3 (0-2 SEC) and Kentucky 2-1 (0-1 SEC) are both already into their conference schedules. Last week the Commodores lost to South Carolina (48-34), but they covered the spread and looked good.
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The score was close throughout the game and it was the best Vandy has played this year. Kentucky ended up losing their SEC opener in triple OT against the Gators (36-30), but they also covered.
This is a tough spot for Kentucky, as they just lost in triple OT plus they have South Carolina on deck next week at home. Vandy is having a down year and Kentucky will likely take this game lightly.
Against Ohio the Wildcats broke out to an early lead, but they shut it down completely afterwards and I can see a similar performance this week. Kentucky is the better team, but this is a big point spread.
Kentucky averages 320.3 PYPG (20th), 182.3 RYPG (54th) and 36.3 PPG (47th). The defense is only allowing 17.7 PPG (22nd) although against Florida last week the defense didn’t hold up as well.
Vanderbilt ran the football 30 times last week for 156 yards, which was above their season average of 119.3 RYPG (105th). Look for them to establish the run and control the time of possession.
I have no doubt that Kentucky will win this game and get an SEC win under their belt. I just don’t expect them to cover. Vandy is a team that’ll fight hard in conference games and 17 is too many points.
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4* NCAA Football Pick: Vanderbilt runs 30+ times and covers the point spread.
Game #2 – Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
NCAA Football Point Spread: Nebraska –20
NCAA Football Over/Under: 67 Points
Illinois (3-1) and Nebraska (4-0) are both playing in their Big Ten opener. The Fighting Illini have won three games against Youngstown State (28-17), Western Kentucky (42-34) and Texas State (42-35).
The only tough opponent they’ve faced this season is Washington and they lost 44-19 in a blow out. The team isn’t expected to do well this season, but their pass game will keep them in some Big Ten games.
Nebraska just beat Miami Florida (41-31) at home last week, but it was a close game throughout. It was a tough match-up for the Cornhuskers, but Ameer Abdullah put the team on his back again.
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Abdullah rushed for 229 yards and 2 TD’s on 35 carries. Nebraska would be smart to pound the rock as much as they can with Abdullah. On the season he already has 625 rushing yards and 5 TD’s.
Nebraska is scoring 45.5 PPG (10th), but they’ve also been allowing 20.3 PPG (33rd) and that hasn’t been against the best competition. McNeese State scored 24 and Fresno State scored 19 on Nebraska.
Illinois is one-dimensional, but they average 321.5 PYPG (19th). Wes Lunt has completed 65.8% of his pass attempts and thrown 11 TD’s. He’ll need to plat mistake-free, but if he does Illinois hangs tight.
This is going to be a high scoring game and I feel that if the Fighting Illini can come close to their season average in points (32.8 PPG – 64th) they’ll be able to cover the +20 point spread with relative ease.
4* NCAA Football Pick: Lunt throws for 300+ yards and the Fighting Illini cover.
Check out our Updated College Football Week 5 Odds.
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