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UCF vs SMU Free Week 7 Preview & Pick (Oct. 15)

Central Florida Knights vs SMU Mustangs Gambling + Handicapping

This is a huge game for the Knights.  They are the only undefeated team in the Eastern division of Conference USA and they need to prove to themselves that they can beat some of the good teams on their schedule after losing to both FIU and BYU.  

Central Florida Knights vs SMU Mustangs
Gerald Ford Stadium – Dallas, Texas
Saturday October 15 – 3:30PMMoneyline:  SMU -165, UCF +145
Spread (ATS): SMU -2.5
Over/Under:  44
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes

UCF

They have a tough road schedule in conference this year and this the first hurdle.

UCF has to start protecting the ball and scoring some points.  In their last three games they have peaked at just 17 points and last week they turned 390 yards of offense into just 16 against Marshall (luckily their defense was superb).  Sophomore quarterback Jeff Godfrey seems a little unsure of himself after consecutive losses.  They need him playing more naturally so that his supreme athleticism comes through more.

These teams have only met three times with Central Florida taking them all including last year’s Conference USA Championship game.  UCF is 2-0-1 ATS in these games and has really put the clamps on the Mustang offense not giving up more than 20 points in any of the games.  That same defense has been very stout thus far this season  – they are second in the nation in points allowed giving up just 10 per game. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

SMU

The Mustangs had their biggest victory of recent memory two weeks ago when they won at TCU.  However, all that momentum is gone due to last week’s off week and now they must amp themselves back up for a visit from UCF, a team they have never beaten and am important obstacle if SMU wants to return to the Conference USA championship game again.

It is rare that starting quarterbacks are replaced in college football but for SMU the early switch to J.J. McDermott has been fantastic.  Last time out against TCU he shredded the Horned Frogs with 349 yards passing and 4TDs.  If he can do that against UCF, which has one of the best secondaries in the nation, it will be very impressive.  UCF has dominated in this series and SMU needs their QB to be a difference maker if they want to change the outcome.

There are a few good teams in C-USA and these two are among them.  Cross over division scheduling is rarely fair so this is a big one for both teams.  Win and you remain undefeated, lose and you probably can’t afford another loss the rest of the way.  That is a lot of pressure for both teams so we will have to see which one can rise to the occasion.  In the past only UCF has done so.

ATS Pick:  UCF +2.5
Over/Under Pick:  Over
Score Prediction:  UCF 28 – SMU 24

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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.


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