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ULM vs. TCU Free Week 3 Preview & Pick (Sept. 16)

Bet On College Football – Lousiana-Monroe Warhawks vs TCU Horned Frogs Gambling Preview

After two games the Wahawks sit at 1-1 but it is hard to gauge this club right now.  They were shutout by Florida State in their opener and followed that up with a 35-7 pasting of Grambling State.

Lousiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Amon G Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, Texas
Saturday Sept 17 – 2:00PM
Moneyline:
Spread (ATS):  TCU -28.5
Over/Under: 51.5
Odds courtesy of Legends
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ULM

Odds are the outcome of this one is going to be closer to the former than the latter, a game in which they could only muster 191 yards on offense against a very good Seminoles team.

TCU might not be championship elite this season like FSU but they are still pretty darn good.

The Warhawks were expected to take a step forward in the Sun Belt with 10 returning starters on offense this season.  Their QB – Kolton Browning – is a run pass threat, but he is still trying to improve his decision making.  He stood tall against FSU so I don’t expect him to wilt from being on the road against a tough defense that will come after him.

ULM struggles because they are not very explosive forcing them to take long marches down the field, without mistake.

You can see from the spread that many are expecting TCU to return to their ass-whooping form of recent memory this week.  If the Warhawks can muster as many as 10 points then they are a decent bet to cover, especially if TCU is still minus a couple of playmakers on offense and defense.

I am not sure I would stake my cash on ULM to be able to do that but look for them to challenge once Sun Belt play opens if they are not too battered by then. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

TCU

The Horned Frogs looked more like themselves in beating Air Force on the road last weekend.  It wasn’t a sterling victory, with the Falcons outgaining TCU but you have to note that the score made it look closer than it actually was.  TCU was leading the whole way and was up 34-9 until a couple of meaningless 4th quarter scores made it look more respectable for the home side.

It was a much better defensive effort against Air Force but hardly what we are used to seeing from TCU.  The more encouraging sign was the offense led by Casey Pachall.  Against an underrated Air Force defense he had a very efficient game – 20 for 25 throwing – while the running game, minus leading rusher Ed Wesley cranked out more than 200 yards.

Last year this was an elite offensive team and they are trending in that direction once again.

Just in case you were thinking that TCU might be primed for an upset this week I thought I should share with you a daunting statistic.  Since Garry Patterson took over as coach TCU is 17-1 in nonconference games at home including 17 in row.

That has included wins against Texas Tech, Baylor, SMU and even Stanford.

28.5 points is a lot to cover but I am not sure TCU is going to lose another game all season.

Trends:

Under is 7-2 in ULMON last 9 games on grass.
ULMON are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.
ULMON are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.
TCU are 48-23 ATS in their last 71 home games.

ATS Pick:  ULM +28.5
Over/Under Pick:  Over
Score Prediction:  TCU 34 – ULM 20

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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.


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