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Boise State vs. Toledo Free Week 3 Preview & Pick (Sept. 16)

Bet On College Football – Boise State Broncos vs Toledo Rockets Gambling Preview

Boise State had little trouble with Georgia in the opener but I am not sure if they were helped in their pursuit of a BCS title game bid by the Bulldogs close loss to South Carolina last week.

Boise State Broncos vs Toledo Rockets
Glass Bowl – Toledo, Ohio
Friday September 16 – 8:00PM
Moneyline:  Boise State -1400, Toledo +925
Spread (ATS):  Boise State -17.5
Over/Under: 58.5

Odds courtesy of 5Dimes
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Boise State

The Broncos were chilled out at home awaiting a trip to Toledo on Friday night.  These teams met last year with BSU covering at home as a staggering 38 point favourite.

In their opener, Bronco quarterback Kellen Moore proved that he is going to have little trouble moving the ball without his star receivers from last year.  There is no QB who is in more control of his team’s offense.   Combine that with creative gameplanning from the coaching staff they are always a threat to score 50  or more points like they did last year against Toledo.  The running game was average against Georgia but they might find it a little easier to move the ball against the Rockets.

This year Boise State seems to have more of a chip on their shoulder than usual, so even though they are rested I think we will see a very sharp and commanding performance.  They know that all of their games, especially those on TV, need to live up to expectations if they wish to find themselves where they want to be at the end of the season.  This week should be a small speed bump for the Broncos.

Toledo

The Rockets nearly pulled a stunning upset last week at Ohio State.  They used some big plays to take command in the first quarter but after relinquishing the lead they couldn’t get enough done to win the game late in a 27-22 loss.  They return home this week but the task is no easier in facing a rested Boise State squad out for blood. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

In fact it is probably harder given how close they came last week.

For Toledo to have a chance to win it is all about WR Eric Page.  Page took receptions from two different QBs to the house against the Buckeyes and will need to do at least as much, if not more, against Boise State (he had a superb game last year and they still got thumped).  The one problem might be how good he was last week.  It will be no surprise to see the Broncos double and triple team him.  Running back Adonis Thomas, who is a fantastic receiver, has to be able to run against a team that bottled up the Rockets rushing attack last year (2.1 YPC).

Kudos to the Rockets for scheduling a couple of murderous back to back games.  Last week they showed a good game plan in stifling Ohio State but OSU isn’t what it has been, or even what it might be later in the year.  Unfortunately for the Rockets this game will serve as a good benchmark game for Boise and I expect they will use it as such to make a statement.  

The Rockets might be made an example of by a very good Broncos team.

Trends:

BOIST are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games.
BOIST are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 Fri. games.
Over is 7-3 in TOL last 10 games overall.
Over is 7-3 in TOL last 10 games on fieldturf.

ATS Pick:  Boise State -17.5
Over/Under Pick:  Over
Score Prediction:  Boise State 52 – Toledo 24

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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.


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