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TCU vs Air Force Free Week 2 Preview & Pick (Sept. 10)

Bet On College Football – Texas Christian Horned Frogs vs Air Force Falcons Gambling Preview

It was a shame that TCU lost their opener at Baylor – it was a hell of a game.  Their defense was a mess throughout the contest but with Casey Pachall at the controls they showed amazing determination to get back in the game before losing it late.  

TCU Horned Frogs vs Air Force Falcons
Falcon Stadium -Colorado Springs, CO
Saturday September 10 – 3:30PM
Moneyline:  TCU -130, Air Force +110
Spread (ATS):  TCU -2
Over/Under: 48.5
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes

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TCU

Now that they have lost, eliminating themselves from BCS contention, it will be interesting to see how the Horned Frogs play throughout the rest of the season.  Especially given that they are saying adios to the MWC at the end of the season.

It took a while for him to get going but Pachall showed that there might not be much of a dropoff from the Andy Dalton era – at least at QB.  Unfortunately for TCU they got behind to the point that they couldn’t achieve the balance they wanted – still they rushed for more than 200 yards.  Ideally they would like to grab a lead and play great defense while pounding the ball to victory.  In the opener they proved that they can compete in whatever type of game they find themselves in though.

What has happened to the TCU defense?  Sure there were some personnel losses from the previous season but this team had not given up as many as 36 points since 2006 so giving up 50 was a shocker.  Their pass coverage was horrible and the run defense was not much better.  Lucky for TCU, Air Force runs a much more predictable attack.  That doesn’t make it easy to stop, but they have had success giving up an average of just 13.6 points to their triple option attack the last 5 seasons..

Air Force

Air Force is always a little better than expected but never quite good enough to break through in the MWC. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

They are coming off a sloppy win against South Dakota and I am not liking what I hear from this team about how they were pulling for TCU so they could get a letdown game out of the Frogs.  To me that speaks to a team that doesn’t think they have much of a chance to win, which is surprising because they have played TCU as close as anyone in the conference before last year’s beatdown.

It would be fair to say that the Falcons might have just lost interest last week as South Dakota scored two TDs in the fourth to make the game look closer than it really was.  Air Force churned out nearly 400 yards on the ground 5 players with 49 or more yards.  Last year they struggled to run against TCU, one of only two opponents who held them below 200 yards all season.  They have to be able to run more effectively to upset  a stunned TCU squad.

Like other service academies Air Force seems to lack bulk and athleticism on defense.  However, since coach Troy Calhoun took the helm this has been a very good defensive team that gives up few points – perhaps helped by their ground oriented offense.  Last year TCU ran for almost 400 yards in a game that TCU literally ran away with.  TCU will look to establish the run this week and Air Force must be ready or a repeat of last year will occur.

Trends:

AIRFC are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
AIRFC are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Under is 7-3 in AIRFC last 10 games on grass.

ATS Pick:  TCU -2
Over/Under Pick:  Over
Score Prediction:  TCU 34 – Air Force 21

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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.


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