Big East Football Previews – Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs No. 24 West Virginia Mountaineers
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Scarlet Knights at Mountaineers
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Date/Time: Saturday, Dec. 4 12 p.m. (ET)
Venue: Mountaineer Field, Morgantown WV.
Broadcast: Nationally on ABC
Scarlet Knights at Mountaineers Lines by BetUs.com
Pointspread: Mountaineers -20
Over/Under: 44 ½
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The Rutgers Scarlet Knights will try and end the Big East title hopes of the No. 24 West Virginia Mountaineers in this regular season finale for both teams. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 p.m. (ET) this upcoming Saturday afternoon and the game will be broadcast nationally on ABC.
Rutgers has little left to do this season other than to try and play the role of spoiler after losing its last five games, ending any chance the Scarlet Knights had at becoming bowl eligible this year. The latest setback was a 40-13 loss to Louisville as a 3 ½ point home underdog and the total went ‘over’ the 45 ½ point line. This loss dropped Rutgers to 4-7 straight-up on the year and just 2-9 against the spread. The Scarlet Knights are 1-5 SU in Big East play.
The problems with this team are on both sides of the ball as they have a defense that is giving up an average of 25.7 points per game and an offense that is only averaging 21.5 points. Rutgers’ passing attack is ranked 75th in the nation; averaging just 189.9 yards per game, while the ground game has been even worse; averaging just 104.4 yards per game. The only bright spot has been wide receiver Mark Harrison, who has 41 receptions for 763 yards and eight touchdowns.
West Virginia kept its conference title hopes alive with a huge 35-10 win over Pittsburgh in last Friday’s annual ‘Backyard Brawl’. The Mountaineers easily covered as a three-point road underdog and the total went ‘over’ the 41 ½ point line. They capitalized on four Panther turnovers to run their record in the Big East to 4-2, leaving them tied with Connecticut and Pittsburgh. West Virginia can win the title with a win in this game and a Huskies’ loss to South Florida in their season finale. The Mountaineers are currently 8-3 SU on the year and 7-4 ATS.
West Virginia has worked itself back into the rankings behind one of the best defenses in the country. This unit is ranked second in the nation in points allowed; giving up an average of just 12.6 points per game and 10th in sacks with 34. Offensively, the Mountaineers have relied primarily on a ground game that is averaging 161.4 yards per game. RB Noel Devine is the team’s leading rusher with 855 yards on 188 carries.
Trends:
Rutgers is 1-3 both SU and ATS in four road games this season. The total has gone ‘over’ in six of its last seven games overall.
West Virginia is 5-1 SU in six games at home this year and 4-2 ATS. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of its last six games overall.
Head-to-head, the Mountaineers have won the last 10 games SU, but are only 5-5 ATS. Two years ago they beat the Scarlet Knights 24-17, but could not cover as a 14-point home favorite. Last season they won 24-21 and covered as a one-point road favorite. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of the last five games.
West Virginia should be able to carry the momentum from last week’s big win into this game to come away with a lopsided win. The Scarlet Knights have appeared to be phoning it in over the past few weeks and this game should be no different.
The Pick: West Virginia -20
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One reply on “Rutgers vs. West Virginia Week 14 Gambling Preview & Pick”
A month ago, the West Virginia Mountaineers appeared to be dead and buried in the race for the Big East title. Yet, they now have a fighting chance to win their conference this weekend.
NCAA football betting: Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ West Virginia Mountaineers
Online Betting Odds: West Virginia -20
The Scarlet Knights can bank on one memorable event as they head into Morgantown to play West Virginia. Three years ago, West Virginia was one win away from advancing to the BCS National Championship Game. The Mountaineers were a huge favorite – at least 20 points if not more so – to beat the Pittsburgh Panthers. The game was played in Morgantown at Mountaineer Field, so West Virginia had home-field advantage against a sub-.500 Pittsburgh team. Yet, amazingly, West Virginia choked. The Mountaineers – who had scored 66 points in their previous game that season against Connecticut – scored just one offensive touchdown, plus two more points on an intentional safety taken by Pitt in the final minute of regulation. Pitt won, 13-9, to ruin West Virginia’s season. If that 2007 Pitt team could beat the 2007 West Virginia team, then the 2010 Rutgers roster can take down this year’s version of the Mountaineers.
On Oct. 29, West Virginia didn’t just lose at Connecticut. The Mountaineers fumbled seven times. The loss was one of the most painful in West Virginia’s long and colorful football history. After experiencing a disappointment that existed beyond words, WVU owned two losses in Big East play while Pittsburgh remained unbeaten in the conference. Since West Virginia had to play at Pittsburgh – where it memorably flopped in 2008 – the Mountaineers’ chances of winning a weak Big East were slim to none. The pressure on coach Bill Stewart – one of the most likeable yet overmatched coaches in college football – escalated markedly. There seemed to be no escaping the notion that West Virginia’s season was amounting to a waste of talent and energy.
However, look what happened when West Virginia went to Pittsburgh’s Heinz Field on Thanksgiving Friday. The Mountaineers didn’t just beat Pitt, they pounded the Panthers by a 35-10 score. WVU’s defense held Pittsburgh to just 78 rushing yards and forced four turnovers. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers’ turnover-prone offense didn’t give the ball away at all. A zero-turnover performance enabled West Virginia to claim a rousing victory that virtually eliminated Pitt from the Big East race. Indeed, while the Panthers went from the penthouse to the outhouse in November, West Virginia has now put itself in position to claim the conference crown for the second time in four years and the third time in the past six seasons.
West Virginia doesn’t have to watch a scoreboard during this game, either. Stewart’s squad will finish this game roughly four and a half hours before the day’s other crucial Big East game between Connecticut and South Florida. That’s plenty of time for the Mountaineers to handle Rutgers without distractions.
How The Game Will Play Out
There won’t be a repeat of 2007. West Virginia is a confident team that is playing its best football of the season right now. This Rutgers club is a lot worse than the 2007 Pittsburgh Panthers, despite the similar records. Pittsburgh running back LeSean McCoy made the 2007 Panthers a legitimately tough team. Rutgers has no one like McCoy on its roster. Take West Virginia in a blowout.
Rutgers West Virginia Betting Pick: West Virginia -20
Just my .02c.