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ECU vs. UAB Free Week 11 Preview & Pick (Nov. 11)

Thursday Night NCAA Football Odds – ECU Pirates vs UAB Blazers Free Pick & Preview

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East Carolina Pirates vs Alabama-Birmingham Blazers

Thursday November 11 – 8:00PM
Legion Field – Birmingham, Alabama
East Carolina (5-4) vs UAB (3-6)
Moneyline: UAB -130, ECU +110
Spread Favourite: ECU -2
Over/Under: 67
(Odds courtesy of BetUS) – BET NOW!!!

East Carolina

The Pirates have been streaky this year and are currently on a losing streak.  They are also trying to revive themselves after one of the worst beatings of the season last week at the hands of Navy.  They gave up an amazing 76 points, in part due to losing 4 fumbles against a Navy team that doesn’t beat itself.  They lost the game by 41 points despite generating only 30 some yards fewer on offense than the Midshipmen.

Last week Dominique Davis threw for more than 400 yards with 5 TDs and zero interceptions in the loss.  He has excelled in the new spread offense better than could have been expected and has a nice favourite target in Dwayne Harris.  ECU has quickly evolved into one of the most explosive teams in the country ranking in the top 14 in scoring and passing offense.  Unfortunately they are not having greater success in terms of winning now that they have joined the rest of the conference with their pass happy offense.

The Pirates have won the the last three against the Blazers and 4 of the last 5 – they also have a 4-1 ATS record over that period.  That coincides withe the Skip Holtz era when the team was very good but the majority of those games were pretty close.  Another trend to draw on from that data set is that these two have played 4-1 to the under but given the way the Pirates have been scoring this year you can probably throw that out the window as a predictor.


The Blazers may have only three wins but they are all very surprising.  Their first was an upset of Troy by a point at home, their second was against UTEP which was surprising because they only gave up 6 points (they are averaging 31ppg against) and most recently they beat Southern Miss two weeks ago, scoring 50 points on the road as 10 point underdogs to get another single point victory.  This team seems to be improving but really you don’t know what you are going to get from game to game.

The biggest change from the beginning of the season to now has been the emergence of QB Bryant Ellis.  He is not as much of a running threat as David Isabelle but with him at the controls they are able to move the ball through the air and have better balance.  They were hoping that Isabelle could slot in for Joe Webb but his inability to throw was really hurting the offense and his injury have made the change process easier to manage.

With their win on the road against Southern Miss UAB put the rest of the conference on notice that they can be a force to be reckoned with.  The Pirates and their high powered offense should have no trouble moving the ball this week but the Blazers may be able to match them score for score, especially at home in a spotlight game that might electrify the crowd more than you would expect for a 3-6 team.  The Blazers have an outside shot at a bowl if they win this week as their last two might be gimmes.

The Pick: The safest play in this is the over, it wouldn’t surprise me the way these two play defense if it was covered by the end of the third.

College Football Gambling Trends

Pirates are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Pirates are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Blazers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Pirates are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Score Prediction:  ECU 54 – UAB 45

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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.