New Mexico Lobos vs Oregon Ducks Gambling Preview + Predictions
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The 2010 College Football season opens on Thursday. Veteran sportswriter Matt Martz will preview all of the weekly PAC-10 match ups throughout the season, providing some insight to help make your college football wagers winners.
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New Mexico vs. #11 Oregon Free Week 1 College Football Pick
2009 Team Records:
New Mexico: 1-11 SU, 5-7 ATS
Oregon: 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS
Date/Time: Saturday, September 4, 3:30 PM ET
Venue: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR.
New Mexico Lobos at # 11 vs. Oregon Ducks Lines
Money Line: Not available yet
Spread: Oregon –35
Over/Under: 55
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The No. 11 Oregon Ducks will open their season at home trying to put all of their offseason troubles behind and focus on putting a beating on a weaker New Mexico Lobos team in their season opener at Autzen Stadium in Eugene on Saturday afternoon.
Oregon went 10-3 last season, ending USC’s seven-year reign as Pac-10 champion and advancing to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1995. The Ducks, however, were beaten 26-17 by then-eighth-ranked Ohio State.
Now the Ducks will try to pick up where they left off with last year’s surprising run on their way to winning two consecutive PAC-10 conference titles for the first time since 2000-01. But they still have a couple of hurdles they will need to clear. Starting with the loss of star QB Jeremiah Masoli who transferred to Ole’ Miss after being dismissed by head coach Chip Kelly.
But Oregon’s troubles don’t stop there as Kelly has found himself spending a lot of time disciplining players including suspending RB LaMichael James for the season opener, dismissing defensive end Matt Simms and receiver Jamere Holland, as well as kicker Rob Beard who was suspended for a single game.
Kelly has scrambled to fill holes left by these actions and is optimistic that his e 11th-ranked Ducks will remain competitive in 2010. But there are still a lot of unanswered questions surrounding the offense.
The first will be to see how newly appointed sophomore QB Darron Thomas will perform under center in his new role of full time starter. Kelly seems to be confident in turning the offense over to the inexperienced Thomas who played in five games in 2008, completing 16 of 33 passes for 268 yards and three touchdowns.
Thomas has been charged with leading an offense that was eighth in the nation with an average of 36.1 points while ranking sixth with 231.7 rushing yards per game. With 814 rushing yards and 13 scores coming from dual-threat QB Masoli. While Thomas does not play with the same style as the departed scramble, a strong supporting cast will minimize the pressure. 
He will however be without the services of standout RB James who set a Pac-10 freshman record with 1,546 rushing yards while scoring 14 touchdowns for Saturday’s first ever meeting with New Mexico.
Defensively, Oregon will try to improve after allowing an average of 34.4 points over its final five games last year.
While the Ducks were dealing with player misbehavior, New Mexico coach Mike Locksley was creating his own controversies last year that included serving a 10-day suspension in regards to a sexual harassment lawsuit filed by a former administrative assistant.
But the Lobos have more troubles on the field as they finished the 2009 season with an embarrassing 1-11 record, including a 1-7 in-conference performance. It wasn’t for a lack of talent but rather a pile of injuries that sapped the team’s skilled positions.
Locksley has worked hard to remold the team for 2010, bringing in loads of talent and forming the foundation for his playmaker offense starting with B.R. Holbrook as the Lobos’ starting quarterback.
Holbrook, a sophomore, beat out freshmen Tarean Austin and Stump Godfrey for the job. He played four games last season, completing 19 of 34 passes for 170 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.
UNM has a strong backfield with all three of their top rushers returning from a year ago. Demond Dennis who led the team in yards with 427 will show the way, with James Wright and the speedy Kasey Carrier backing him up.
The Lobos also have two starters returning to the line with prospect Byron Bell adding some strength into the mix.
Leading receiver Ty Kirk provides a veteran presence and Freshman All-American tight end Lucas Reed returns to secure the passing lanes.
The defense returns just three starters to a squad that gave up 35.9 points per game last season for the eighth-highest average in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The strength is in the second row with linebacker Carmen Messina who led the nation in tackles with 162.
To bet against the Ducks straight up is just throwing your money away in the one. The Lobos will still need time to find a team chemistry, and still would have a hard time against all the weapons Oregon possess’. While the skill matches up on paper, the experience doesn’t.
The Ducks will win, but by 35 may be a stretch.
NM at Oregon Betting Trends
New Mexico is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
New Mexico is 1-15 SU in its last 16 games
New Mexico is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Mexico’s last 5 games on the road
Oregon is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oregon’s last 7 games
Oregon is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oregon’s last 5 games at home
Free Pick: Take the dog, New Mexico +35
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Matt Martz is a sports writer for the Bakersfield Californian located in Central California. Blessed is the gambler who expects nothing, for ye shall not be disappointed.
